tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-83214484211871153642024-03-13T09:14:10.561-07:00Digital CrusaderThe bits are coming for your brain!Eric Boydhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16717392630309707057noreply@blogger.comBlogger114125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8321448421187115364.post-83758407923180474602020-06-13T15:01:00.002-07:002020-06-13T15:01:54.895-07:00Working Out at Home<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-8axSCU7pbNU/XuVMglzdNlI/AAAAAAAABYg/TSMvhEfW4HE3m1hGV6xGiR6zmRSzYi56ACNcBGAsYHQ/s1600/HomeWeights.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1200" data-original-width="1600" height="240" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-8axSCU7pbNU/XuVMglzdNlI/AAAAAAAABYg/TSMvhEfW4HE3m1hGV6xGiR6zmRSzYi56ACNcBGAsYHQ/s320/HomeWeights.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>
I've been super lucky during this pandemic-related stay-at-home time,
because I had just finished setting up my home gym in Dec 2019, mere
months before this lock down was imposed. So I got all my home-gym
equipment at regular or even discount prices, as opposed to the premium
that many other people had to pay just a few months later, assuming you even succeeded in finding stuff that wasn't sold out.<br />
<br />
It
took me quite awhile to work out how to DO a home gym in a practical
way that didn't require something huge/expensive, like a squat rack.
I've also slowly evolved the workout itself over time, in response to
things I've learned. All of which is to say, it took me a long time to
get to where I'm actually happy with my overall fitness routine, and I'm
actually seeing significant gains now, which tells me that I'm on the
right track. I also feel safe now with all of the exercises, which is
important.<br />
<br />
This is a long post, so here's a bit of an
overview. There are three sections: equipment, routine, and recovery.
Equipment is about the weights, the resistance bands, and the other
"things". Routine is about what I actually DO, including yoga, pilates
and two different weight training days. And recovery is about how to
make sure my body can properly grow in response to all of this work.
We'll start with recovery FIRST, because it's the most important, it's
basically the why. Whereas routine is what, and equipment is how.<br />
<br />
WHY = RECOVERY: Why do any of this? Well, I want to be healthy, flexible, strong, and live a long time. <a href="https://podcastnotes.org/tim-ferris-show/peter-attia-tim-ferriss-meditation-fasting-sleep-metformin-podcasting-centenarian-olympics-exercise/">Centenarian Olympics</a>: "In your 90s-100s, you should be able to:<br />
<ul>
<li>Get up off the floor under your own support</li>
<li>Pick up a child that’s running at you (or, similarly, do a 30-pound goblet squat)</li>
<li>Walk up and down 3 flights of stairs with 10 lbs. of groceries in each hand</li>
<li>Pull yourself out of a pool</li>
<li>Lift a 30 lb. suitcase over your head (i.e., when you’re putting your luggage in an overhead bin on an airplane)"</li>
</ul>
If
you're going to do all that at 90, then it immediately follows that you
need to be stronger than that at 80, stronger again at 70, etc.
Obviously it's never too late too get fit, but given the other obvious
benefits, I think it makes sense to pursue fitness your whole life. <br />
<br />
This
section is actually called recovery, and that's about all the time you
spend NOT working out, living your life, and it's when your body is
rebuilding from the workouts and actually getting stronger. The most
important part of that is diet: you need to be eating enough of the
right kind of stuff that your body can actually recover/rebuild. And
that basically means protein, you need ideally several hundred grams per
day, plus other calories too. So, in a fore-shadowing of what's to
come, you should basically be sacrificing real chickens to your
metabolism, or the equivalent. I've found the only way for me to consume
enough is via liquids - trying to get more and larger burritos was just
impossible. But drinking a litre of milk a day? LoMaD. EASY! Protein
powder can help the balance (more protein, so less fat/sugar for the
same target), but isn't essential.<br />
<br />And the other thing is just
to make sure that you're not going too hard. Your body needs many days
of rest after a hard workout. And during a workout, you need time
between each set to let your body recover to aerobic exercise (rather
than anaerobic).<br />
<br />
Another thing that has to be said here
in recovery is: always listen to your body. If something is painful,
stop. Period. I know it's hard. Just stop, immediately, and end the
entire workout. You can always come back tomorrow, and your "pride" or
"motivation" or whatever ISN'T WORTH GETTING HURT. Also, if it's not
feeling good, figure out why, adjust, etc, until it's feeling good.
There is quite a large zone between an exercise which your body doesn't
find challenging, to one which is, and then beyond that to one which
will injure you. You need to be paying close attention during a workout,
so that you can hear those signals, and judge correctly: you want to it
to be challenging, even hard, but you don't want it to be painful, or
to injure yourself. It takes time and experience to become a good judge
of this balance. But given that you shouldn't be in any rush, I'd say
that a good strategy in general is to immediately stop doing anything
that seems risky to you, and figure out a new way to do it, or use less
weight, or whatever, until it no longer seems risky.<br />
<br />
On
a super practical front, here's some numbers around this for me: I
generally need between 90 and 150 seconds of recovery between sets,
depending mostly on what it is (squats needs more, shoulder press less).
And I need at least 3 complete days between workouts - used to be 2,
but as I get stronger, I need more. I generally try to drink 3-4 glasses
of milk on workout days, and the day after too, but I don't try so hard
on the other 2 days.<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
HOW =
EQUIPMENT. I'm putting this in the middle, since it's hard to understand
"what" without the details from how. Also, how is still slightly
philosophical, so I'm going to start this section with a sci-fi short
story: <a href="https://www.salon.com/2002/08/28/0wnz0red/">0wnz0red</a> by Cory Doctorrow, which contains this very <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Transhumanism">transhumanist</a> rant:<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
"But your meat, it's not under your control. You know you have to
exercise for 20 minutes before you start burning any fat at all? In
other words, the first twenty minutes are just a goddamned waste of
time. It's sacrificing a chicken to your metabolism. Eat less, exercise
more is a giant chicken-sacrifice, so I say screw it. I say, you should
be super-user in your own body. You should be leet as you want to be.
Every cell in your body should be end-user modifiable." </blockquote>
Working
out is what humans currently have to do in order to get our bodies to
DO and BE the things that we call "fitness", and fitness is the
foundation not just of your body, but also
of your mind. As long as we lack real ownership, we're going to have to
keep sacrificing chickens in this messed up dance. That said, we don't
have spend HOURS doing this stuff, like almost everything in life, there
is an <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pareto_principle">80/20 Pareto Distribution</a>,
meaning: you can get 80% of the benefit by doing the right 20% of the
work. This also combos well with the "High Intensity Interval Training" <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/High-intensity_interval_training">HIIT</a>
attitude and research - same sort of idea, just a different frame.
Nearly everything in the real world is distributed by a Power Law, so
once you sort of catch the wave on this, you start to <a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/truegaming/comments/3e1xdj/minmaxing_is_ruining_every_game_i_play/">min/max all parts of your life</a>...<br />
<br />
The
trick to min/maxing weight lifting is: what's essential and what's not?
Sadly, what's utterly essential is to strongly activate the biggest
muscles in your body, in order to release all the good signals (HGH,
etc) that will make your body do what you want it to do, which is: build
muscle. So that means leg exercises, with a LOT of weight, there is no
way around that logic. And that means, you need equipment which can
actually let you achieve that.<br />
<br />
After thinking about
the problem for quite awhile, and doing some little experiments at home,
I eventually settled on a 3-part solution:<br />
<ol>
<li><a href="https://www.amazon.ca/gp/product/B001ARYU58/">BowFlex SelectTech 552 Adjustable Dumbbells</a>.
Each dumbbell can be adjusted to vary from 5 lbs to 52.5 lbs ("552").
So total possible here is 105 lbs, and it's super versatile. I liked the
design & look & ease of use of these better than their main
competitor, the <a href="https://www.amazon.ca/Power-Block-GF-SPDBLK24-Adjustable-SpeedBlock/dp/B000A6T9I8/ref=sr_1_3?dchild=1&keywords=powerblock&qid=1592070563&sr=8-3">Power Block</a>
adjustable dumbbells. And of course, either one is way superior to sets
of real dumbbells, which would be a lot more expensive and take up a
lot more room, and probably have less options for weight in the end too.
I got the BowFlex 552 for $300 CAD, I see they are more than double
that now...</li>
<li>For additional weight: <a href="https://www.amazon.com/dp/B07G4JV76P/ref=dp_cerb_2">20lb weight vest</a> plus <a href="https://www.amazon.ca/gp/product/B06Y1W8YJK/ref=ppx_yo_dt_b_asin_title_o02_s01?ie=UTF8&psc=1">10lb wrist weights</a>. AND, two sets of <a href="https://www.amazon.ca/gp/product/B07B4XF7QN/">resistance bands - 10 inch</a>.
I measured the actual resistance those bands very carefully, and though
the varies (more resistance the longer they get), you can think of it
quickly like this: 2x yellow = 15lbs. 2x red = 20lbs. 2x blue=25lbs. 2x
green=40lbs. 2x black=50lbs. They combo up too, of course.</li>
<li>Ancillary equipment: <a href="https://www.amazon.ca/gp/product/B01M7TFBNA/ref=ppx_yo_dt_b_asin_title_o00_s00?ie=UTF8&psc=1">6mm yoga mat</a> (I like this thickness, it's enough to cushion my bony knees, but not too much to make it spongy). <a href="https://www.amazon.ca/gp/product/B07MNPRJFK/ref=ppx_yo_dt_b_asin_title_o02_s00?ie=UTF8&psc=1">Adjustable weight bench</a>, for bench and push press. And I have a yoga block, 2x 4lb dumbbell for pilates, workout clothing, a small table to hold everything, and a notebook.</li>
</ol>
For
squats and deadlifts, I have to combine the weights and some of the
resistance resistance. Other exercises vary. I decided on this after
seeing the absolutely outrageous prices and sizes of thing like squat
racks and olympic bars & plates, which is the kind of stuff I used
to use in the gym. I DID look at the <a href="https://www.amazon.ca/Bowflex-SelectTech-1090-Adjustable-Dumbbell/dp/B000OC5RXE/">SelectTech 1090</a>
(10lbs - 90 lbs for each dumbbell, i.e. not quite twice as heavy) for
quite awhile, but they are unreasonably expensive - it wasn't double the
cost, it was quadruple. I may eventually end up there anyway, but maybe
I can figure out a cheaper way somehow...<br />
<br />
Another
important thing in the how though, is to worry about balance. You don't
want become one of those muscle-bound people who can hardly move, and
their arms don't straighten out, and they teeter cause their legs are
undeveloped... I discovered the hard way (INJURY!) that it's super
important to keep up your core strength, and also, your flexibility. So
in addition to the 80/20 HIIT stuff, I do pilates and yoga. These help
keep my core strong and my flexibility maximized, and this actually
takes longer, much longer, than the workouts. But I think it's really
important, especially as I get older, in order to avoid injury, but also
to keep being able to exercise properly. So much of doing a
concentrated, optimized workout is being able to do it correctly, with
proper form, and sadly the optimized workout just isn't balanced enough
to properly train all the small muscles of your body (e.g. the ones that
literally maintain your balance), so you need to do something else, and
of course, stay active. Anyway, all of that finally bring us to:<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
WHAT:
ROUTINE. Now we're into the real nitty gritty :-). I don't have a
strict schedule, but there are basically three things which alternate
around:<br />
<ol>
<li>Yoga classes. During the pandemic, I've been using YouTube: <a href="https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCJEi1foUiGObzzQM3QA2H5A">Alo Yoga</a>
is a great channel for some pretty advanced yoga. Obviously you should
find some at whatever level you're at. I can't actually DO some of the
more advanced stuff, but I love being given a motivating example, so I
can strive to one day be there. I've found 30 minutes is enough at that
level; I feel like this is more than sufficient for flexibility, but
longer can also be good for your mental health and getting in better
touch with your body. Once the lockdown is over, I'll go back to my <a href="https://atomyoga.ca/">local studio</a>.</li>
<li>Pilates
classes. I hate them, actually. Due to a very old injury (congenital,
actually, but it's still mine), my core has some permanent scarring and
bruising, and so a lot of core work is somewhat painful for me. For
years I just skipped it, but that's NOT a good idea, as I learned from a
very painful back injury period about 9 months ago. So, I keep my core
strong by doing pilates, my local studio has actually been offering
virtual live streaming, and I need that over trying to watch it on
youtube, since, as I said, I hate it. Gotta have someone I know keeping a
eye on me, or I don't do it.</li>
<li>Workouts. As above, HIIT,
80/20 rule, let's just do what will make my body actually grow muscle.
Like most people I find lifting weights somewhat boring, so I try to
keep up the entertainment by ramping up the intensity, and making it
about really challenging myself. I've done a lot of different weight
programs, had several different personal trainers, read quite a number
of books, and honestly, just spent way too much time trying to iron this
routine down to it's absolute minimum, shaving mere seconds somehow
appeals to me, even if it takes me hours of thinking to manage... that's
obviously somewhat insane. Anyway, here's where I am now:</li>
</ol>
<table border="1" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" dir="ltr" style="border-collapse: collapse; border: none; font-family: Arial; font-size: 10pt; table-layout: fixed; width: 0px;"><colgroup><col width="96"></col><col width="151"></col><col width="199"></col><col width="100"></col></colgroup><tbody>
<tr style="height: 21px;"><td data-sheets-value="{"1":2,"2":"DAY A"}" style="overflow: hidden; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom; white-space: normal; word-wrap: break-word; wrap-strategy: 4;">DAY A</td><td data-sheets-value="{"1":2,"2":"warmups"}" style="overflow: hidden; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom; white-space: normal; word-wrap: break-word; wrap-strategy: 4;">warmups</td><td data-sheets-value="{"1":2,"2":"sets (always r3x5)"}" style="overflow: hidden; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom; white-space: normal; word-wrap: break-word; wrap-strategy: 4;">sets (always r3x5)</td><td data-sheets-value="{"1":2,"2":"note"}" style="overflow: hidden; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom; white-space: normal; word-wrap: break-word; wrap-strategy: 4;">note</td></tr>
<tr style="height: 21px;"><td data-sheets-value="{"1":2,"2":"Squat"}" style="overflow: hidden; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom; white-space: normal; word-wrap: break-word; wrap-strategy: 4;">Squat</td><td data-sheets-value="{"1":2,"2":"2x25 r10 and 2x45+20 r6"}" style="overflow: hidden; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom; white-space: normal; word-wrap: break-word; wrap-strategy: 4;">2x25 r10 and 2x45+vest r6</td><td data-sheets-value="{"1":2,"2":"2x52.5+wrist+vest+red+black"}" style="overflow: hidden; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom; white-space: normal; word-wrap: break-word; wrap-strategy: 4;">2x52.5+wrist+vest+red+black</td><td data-sheets-value="{"1":2,"2":"equiv. 205 lbs"}" style="overflow: hidden; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom; white-space: normal; word-wrap: break-word; wrap-strategy: 4;">equiv. 205 lbs</td></tr>
<tr style="height: 21px;"><td data-sheets-value="{"1":2,"2":"Deadlift"}" style="overflow: hidden; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom; white-space: normal; word-wrap: break-word; wrap-strategy: 4;">Deadlift</td><td data-sheets-value="{"1":2,"2":"2x25 r10"}" style="overflow: hidden; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom; white-space: normal; word-wrap: break-word; wrap-strategy: 4;">2x25 r10</td><td data-sheets-value="{"1":2,"2":"2x52.5+wrist+black "}" style="overflow: hidden; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom; white-space: normal; word-wrap: break-word; wrap-strategy: 4;">2x52.5+wrist+black </td><td data-sheets-value="{"1":2,"2":"equiv. 165 lbs. No vest, found it caused discomfort"}" style="overflow: hidden; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom; white-space: normal; word-wrap: break-word; wrap-strategy: 4;">equiv. 165 lbs </td></tr>
<tr style="height: 21px;"><td data-sheets-value="{"1":2,"2":"Pelvic floor"}" style="overflow: hidden; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom; white-space: normal; word-wrap: break-word; wrap-strategy: 4;">Pelvic floor</td><td style="overflow: hidden; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;"><br /></td><td data-sheets-value="{"1":2,"2":"intermixed with Bench - set of holds, set of fast, set of holds"}" style="overflow: hidden; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom; white-space: normal; word-wrap: break-word; wrap-strategy: 4;">intermixed with Bench - set of holds, set of fast, set of holds</td><td style="overflow: hidden; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;"><br /></td></tr>
<tr style="height: 21px;"><td data-sheets-value="{"1":2,"2":"Bench Press"}" style="overflow: hidden; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom; white-space: normal; word-wrap: break-word; wrap-strategy: 4;">Bench Press</td><td data-sheets-value="{"1":2,"2":"2x20 r10"}" style="overflow: hidden; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom; white-space: normal; word-wrap: break-word; wrap-strategy: 4;">2x20 r10</td><td data-sheets-value="{"1":2,"2":"2x45"}" style="overflow: hidden; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom; white-space: normal; word-wrap: break-word; wrap-strategy: 4;">2x45</td><td style="overflow: hidden; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;"><br /></td></tr>
<tr style="height: 21px;"><td style="overflow: hidden; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;"><br /></td><td style="overflow: hidden; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;"><br /></td><td style="overflow: hidden; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;"><br /></td><td style="overflow: hidden; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;"><br /></td></tr>
<tr style="height: 21px;"><td data-sheets-value="{"1":2,"2":"DAY B"}" style="overflow: hidden; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom; white-space: normal; word-wrap: break-word; wrap-strategy: 4;">DAY B</td><td data-sheets-value="{"1":2,"2":"warmups"}" style="overflow: hidden; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom; white-space: normal; word-wrap: break-word; wrap-strategy: 4;">warmups</td><td data-sheets-value="{"1":2,"2":"sets (always r3x5)"}" style="overflow: hidden; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom; white-space: normal; word-wrap: break-word; wrap-strategy: 4;">sets (always r3x5)</td><td style="overflow: hidden; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;"><br /></td></tr>
<tr style="height: 21px;"><td data-sheets-value="{"1":2,"2":"Squat"}" style="overflow: hidden; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom; white-space: normal; word-wrap: break-word; wrap-strategy: 4;">Squat</td><td data-sheets-value="{"1":2,"2":"2x25 r10 and 2x45+20 r6"}" style="overflow: hidden; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom; white-space: normal; word-wrap: break-word; wrap-strategy: 4;">2x25 r10 and 2x45+vest r6</td><td data-sheets-value="{"1":2,"2":"2x52.5+wrist+vest+red+black"}" style="overflow: hidden; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom; white-space: normal; word-wrap: break-word; wrap-strategy: 4;">2x52.5+wrist+vest+red+black</td><td style="overflow: hidden; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;"><br /></td></tr>
<tr style="height: 21px;"><td data-sheets-value="{"1":2,"2":"Pelvic floor"}" style="overflow: hidden; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom; white-space: normal; word-wrap: break-word; wrap-strategy: 4;">Pelvic floor</td><td style="overflow: hidden; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;"><br /></td><td data-sheets-value="{"1":2,"2":"intermixed with bodbr - set of holds, set of fast, set of holds"}" style="overflow: hidden; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom; white-space: normal; word-wrap: break-word; wrap-strategy: 4;">intermixed with bodbr - set of holds, set of fast, set of holds</td><td style="overflow: hidden; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;"><br /></td></tr>
<tr style="height: 21px;"><td data-sheets-value="{"1":2,"2":"Bent over dumbbell rows"}" style="overflow: hidden; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom; white-space: normal; word-wrap: break-word; wrap-strategy: 4;">Bent over dumbbell rows</td><td data-sheets-value="{"1":2,"2":"2x15 r10"}" style="overflow: hidden; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom; white-space: normal; word-wrap: break-word; wrap-strategy: 4;">2x15 r10</td><td data-sheets-value="{"1":2,"2":"2x50"}" style="overflow: hidden; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom; white-space: normal; word-wrap: break-word; wrap-strategy: 4;">2x50</td><td style="overflow: hidden; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;"><br /></td></tr>
<tr style="height: 21px;"><td data-sheets-value="{"1":2,"2":"Push press"}" style="overflow: hidden; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom; white-space: normal; word-wrap: break-word; wrap-strategy: 4;">Push press</td><td data-sheets-value="{"1":2,"2":"2x10 r10"}" style="overflow: hidden; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom; white-space: normal; word-wrap: break-word; wrap-strategy: 4;">2x10 r10</td><td data-sheets-value="{"1":2,"2":"2x35"}" style="overflow: hidden; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom; white-space: normal; word-wrap: break-word; wrap-strategy: 4;">2x35</td><td style="overflow: hidden; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom;"><br /></td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
r
is the number of reps. So e.g. r3x5 means three sets of 5 reps each.
The 2xNN is the adjustable dumbbells, i.e. 2x25 means each dumbbell is
set to 25 lbs. From there I add the wrist (10 lbs), vest (20 lbs) and
various elastics, always in matching pairs. e.g. for deadlift, a black
band for each dumbbell, which runs between the dumbbell and the bottom
of my foot - I stand on them. You can think of two black bands as adding
50 lbs total (see above), but of course, it's actually quite a
different experience, since it's variable and a bit annoying to setup. I
strongly prefer to use real weights whenever possible, but you just
can't get nearly enough weight on a dumbbell to do squats or deadlift
properly.<br />
<br />
Pelvic floor is basically me just pulling
up my pelvic floor while sitting in a chair, it's a core exercise. I'm
hoping to get strong enough core to eventually do a real exercise there,
but I'm not there yet.<br />
<br />
Also note that traditionally,
you'd be doing more weight in deadlift than in squat, but I've just
found that because of my weak core, I can't right now. It IS getting
better, slowly, but I'm being very cautious as I add weight - e.g. not
using the vest now, since I found it really caused discomfort, something
about the cantilevering of the weight, since the vest rests pretty
high. Maybe I'll try it again in another month or two, or maybe I'll
just add more elastic resistance, I have lots of bands...<br />
<br />
I
have in the past done more days, many more exercises, more frequent
workouts, etc.etc. I'm pretty sure the routine is very close to
absolutely minimal now. In fact, as I said, I feel like without the
yoga and pilates, this routine is not sufficient. Everything that
remains is certainly necessary, there is no more fat to strip.<br />
<br />
In terms of how it goes schedule wise, I basically do something like this:<br />
Yoga + DAY A<br />
one or two days off<br />
pilates<br />
one or two days off<br />
Yoga + DAY B<br />
one or two days off<br />
pilates<br />
one or two days off <br />
repeat.<br />
<br />
But
I'm not religious about that, if I need an extra day for recovery, I
need an extra day. Generally speaking the workouts end up 4 or 5 days
apart, occasionally 6. Pilates classes actually only happen twice a
week, so I try to time the things to make it workout, but that isn't
always possible, and sometimes I'll end up doing two workouts in a row
instead of alternating.<br />
<br />
You can read a lot of stuff
about warmups and cooldowns, stretching, etc, and the advice is widely
variable and conflicting. I've found starting with yoga makes for a
great warmup, and puts you in the right frame of mind for paying
attention to your body during the workout too. I asked three exercise
professionals about which way they would do it: yoga+workout, or
workout+yoga, and I got two for this way, and one for the other. Which
just goes to show that these things are not written in stone, and I have
tried it both ways, just to test. If you do the workout first, you DO
come into yoga with a kind of energy and intensity that's awesome, you
can really feel your body glow while you are breathing. But overall I
think it's safer this way, and another upside is that because you're
already warm all over, you don't need to do as many warmup sets in the
workout. When I used to do JUST the weight lifting, I had an extra
warmup set for every exercise, i.e. there were three warm up sets for
squats, and two for all the others - it made the whole routine quite a
bit longer. On the other hand, I DO feel like you slightly reduce the
maximum possible weight on each set when you do the yoga first, which is
a real price, will slow your progression. I don't do anything special
for cooldown - I just take a fairly cold shower. Keep me active for 10
more minutes, and helps to prevent me from later sweating into my
clothing too much - though on a warm day, even a cold shower won't
prevent me from sweating for 2h after a good workout, I'm just a sweaty
guy.<br />
<br />
In terms of progression, I increase the weight if
the exercise is too easy. Obviously that's super subjective. But
generally, if I'm not struggling on the last rep or two of the last set,
it's time to go up. I'm a bit more gun-shy about increases for
shoulders and deadlift, due to old injuries, but the rest of them, I'm
not scared to go up and then actually have sets where I can't quite make
5. 4 is totally fine and that's how you know you're really pushing it
too. I've seen my weight increase from about 100 lbs on squat to over
200 in the six months I've been at this, so that's feeling great. Bench
has been more moderate, from 70 to 90.<br />
<br />
I use the notebook
for recording all the details of each workout, i.e. what exercises,
weights, reps, etc. Plus any notes - if it was hard, I put a little h.
If it was too easy, I put an up arrow, which tells me to try more weight
next time. If I had to stop for any reason, I note that. I record my
weight every couple of weeks too. It's quite dense - I get 4 full
workouts on a page (5"x8"), plus again on the back, so all my workouts
since starting in Dec fit on only 5 pages. That's a lot of sweat for
such a small amount of ink :-)<br />
<br />
I think that covers
it, though of course, I haven't said what any of those exercises
actually are, but you can google them, and go deep into the rabbit hole
of hundreds of variations of each, lots of other similar exercises,
exercises which focus on other muscles (e.g. biceps, always popular, but
basically vanity in my opinion). I don't want to hear about your
favorite pet exercise, and my routine basically just goes with the
basics...<br />
<br />
That obviously was super long winded, but
it's nice to have it all down in one place for once. I hope other people
can find some value in it. Eric Boydhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16717392630309707057noreply@blogger.com8tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8321448421187115364.post-13168832439170245552020-06-12T13:50:00.003-07:002020-06-12T13:50:50.929-07:00Ontario Stage II OpeningMost regions in Ontario outside of the GTA are moving into <a href="https://www.ontario.ca/page/reopening-ontario-whats-each-stage#section-2">Stage II opening</a>! I've read it over in detail and I'm pretty happy with it from a policy perspective. Probably the most interesting bit is that restaurants and bars still can't have any indoor service - but they are allowed to do outdoor service, e.g. on improvised patios, etc. Plus delivery & takeout. Will that make it economical for them to actually open? Hard to say, perhaps...<br />
<br />
Anyway, I'm glad it's finally happening. After the Phase I opening, we had a LONG period of flat or even slightly increasing numbers of daily new confirmed cases, which was alarming. I've read some great stories recently about successes with the Contact Tracing in Ontario, which is awesome, we need to hunt down and eliminate this virus, and that's how it gets done: springing wide-spread testing on whole buildings where you know there was a case, to catch anyone else who might be infected, before it spreads further. Great article: <a href="https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-how-to-do-testing-and-contact-tracing-bde85b64072e">Coronavirus: How to Do Testing and Contact Tracing</a>. Also this one: <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/05/how-will-we-ever-be-safe-inside/611953/">Social Distancing Is Not Enough</a> which is about how we will ever feel safe inside, and has some amazing floorplan of infection from various contact tracing teams in South Korea and China, very informative!<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-SQ6qpnO7reE/XuPqV18XePI/AAAAAAAABYE/FtNHqkGAzw8tXSZbLixmUlHcxK0_vUdKgCNcBGAsYHQ/s1600/Canada_vs_California.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="761" data-original-width="628" height="320" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-SQ6qpnO7reE/XuPqV18XePI/AAAAAAAABYE/FtNHqkGAzw8tXSZbLixmUlHcxK0_vUdKgCNcBGAsYHQ/s320/Canada_vs_California.png" width="264" /></a></div>
In bad covid-19 news elsewhere, it seems many places outside of Canada (which is doing quite well) are NOT doing very well. Closest to me would be California, where I used to live. See chart to the right (click for bigger version), or my <a href="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1uZld2djGYL-ZN_Lmq8KtewOHfjqoReRHgp-MY3eKOqs/edit#gid=1287046237">spreadsheet</a>. Apparently northern California (San Francisco, San Jose, silicon valley, etc) is doing sort of OK, but southern California is really fucking it up, so much so that the state as a whole has seen steadily rising new daily confirmed cases, to an alarming level of almost 3000 per day now. And yet, like a lot of places in the USA, they are talking about opening up. Which obviously just means MORE cases. It looks more and more like Canada and the USA are going to really diverge from here - USA has had about 2x the cases per capita that Canada has, so e.g. California had been a good "sister country" to Canada, in terms of having a sort of similar epidemic profile. But that's NOT true anymore, Canada is way down from peak, to like 500/day (from 1500), whereas California still sets new highs on a regular basis. Pretty clearly the Canada-USA border is going to have to remain closed, and Canada is going to be able to open up internally risk free (we'll be like Australia), whereas the epidemic and the deaths are going to continue in most of the USA. Why have our outcomes diverged? It's hard to say, but obviously, comes down to micro-behaviours: people in the USA have continued to infect each other, not maintaining social distance. Whereas people in Canada somehow managed to avoid doing so. Our R0, the number of people each new case infected in turn, was perhaps 0.8, while China was 0.3 or so (that's why China was so much faster to reach 0 cases), and the USA is hovering around 1. 1 means new cases don't decline over time, so that 0.8 vs 1 is a huge deal, much bigger than the difference between 0.3 and 0.8 in the long term. I wish Canada (or Ontario) had locked down a little harder, so that we could have opened up sooner (most of China was out of lockdown after only 60 days, whereas we're still only at Stage II on day 87!), but compared to California, I'm feeling pretty good about our outcome...<br />
<br />
Also, I rarely comment on this kind of stuff since I figure I'm just another well-meaning clueless rich white guy (so take this with a lot of salt, always be suspicious when somebody has no skin in the game! or worse, might even have incentives to perpetuate the status quo), but I can't stay silent this time - I really hope something like this happens: <a href="https://nationalpost.com/news/calum-marsh-defunding-the-police-isnt-radical">Defunding the police isn't radical. It's so lucid it's a wonder it took a movement to catch on</a>. 90% of the things that cops get called to, it shouldn't be an officer trained to deal with violence, that's totally inappropriate. It should be a social worker, or a therapist, or a negotiator, or an addiction specialist, etc. Heck, I don't think cops should do speeding tickets or parking tickets either, there should be some other service which handles that. Really, cops should be used only for things like: murders, breaking and entering, stabbings, etc: violent crimes. I wouldn't send a cop for a rape case even, unless the perp was somehow still there - I'd send an expert on how to help the victim, who incidentally collects some evidence that gets referred to the cops (assuming the victim wants that). We perhaps need a new name/organization for the 90% of police "business" which we're hiving off here, something like "Community Support". And 911 should send that rather than cops or firemen most of the time. Obviously we can't make this change overnight, but I'd like to see it move quickly - 25% of the current police budget in the new org(s) starting next year, 50% in two, 75% in three. And we can see how much further it can go from there. I'm somewhat optimistic that many cities are actually going to at least start on this, but there are lots of reasons to be skeptical, that's for sure. I mean, we SHOULD have been doing all of this already, for decades... I also hope that police organizations are forced to dispose of all their "military" type equipment (the riot gear, the non-lethal crowd control weapons, etc), cause frankly, that's insanity, it should not be stuff they even own. Asking cops to shut-down protests should not be an allowable task in a democracy, and doing so CREATES the violence it's nominally supposed to prevent, arms-race style... Anyway this is clearly a bit of a rant, so I'll stop now...Eric Boydhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16717392630309707057noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8321448421187115364.post-43288173886291567062020-05-26T19:57:00.000-07:002020-05-26T19:57:00.461-07:00SpaceX Crew Dragon Launch: tomorrow<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-1SbcWV7ac6c/Xs3VGq5A6yI/AAAAAAAABWs/ZIEAO8pFm9gMj0RfDAvBnrvwan7YFW2SQCNcBGAsYHQ/s1600/Falcon_CrewDragon.jpeg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1600" data-original-width="1067" height="320" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-1SbcWV7ac6c/Xs3VGq5A6yI/AAAAAAAABWs/ZIEAO8pFm9gMj0RfDAvBnrvwan7YFW2SQCNcBGAsYHQ/s320/Falcon_CrewDragon.jpeg" width="213" /></a></div>
You'd never know by this blog so far, but I'm a huge space nerd. I co-organize the <a href="https://www.meetup.com/Toronto-Space-Club/">Toronto Space Club</a>, which grew out of my <a href="http://venuslabs.org/">Venus Labs</a> project. I follow all the awesome "<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NewSpace">new space</a>" stuff very closely. Anyway, all of this is just lead up to: I'm VERY excited for tomorrow's<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crew_Dragon_Demo-2"> SpaceX Crew Dragon "Demo 2" Launch</a>. Of course, <a href="https://www.nasa.gov/nasalive">NASA and SpaceX will be streaming it</a>, and I'll be watching. Launch at 4:33:33pm EDT (exactly, they need this precision to rendezvous with the ISS), but I'll be tuning in starting at noon to catch when the Astronauts actually board the vessel - <a href="https://spaceq.ca/nasa-tv/">full schedule</a>. I'll probably also be checking in with the stream at <a href="https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC6uKrU_WqJ1R2HMTY3LIx5Q">Everyday Astronaut</a>, in addition to the official NASA streams, that guy is living his (and my) dream!<br />
<br />
There hasn't been anything like this IN MY LIFETIME, humans boarding a new rocket to space for the first time. And IMPORTANTLY, under the new "NASA is just a commercial customer" scheme, anyone (rich enough) can book tickets to space, though obviously you'd need permission if you e.g. want to go to the ISS. I expect to see humans land on both the moon ("to stay", as <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jim_Bridenstine">Jim Bridenstine</a> says) and Mars in this decade, i.e. before 2030. It's an exciting time to be alive; I'm hoping that humans on Mars will reset the world a bit, in the same kind of way that "<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pale_Blue_Dot">pale blue dot</a>" did. <br />
<br />
Thanks to Elon for the <a href="https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1264633864627957761/photo/1">image of the rocket & payload</a> we're talking about, he posted a huge version on twitter and it's now my desktop background image.Eric Boydhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16717392630309707057noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8321448421187115364.post-67582217996177525922020-05-17T18:20:00.001-07:002020-05-17T18:20:39.504-07:00The New Normal<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-En0zo3bcaME/XsHfv20iRaI/AAAAAAAABWM/dKedLHSD6MYLEUR3bn9iOtRX46M1gplagCNcBGAsYHQ/s1600/OntarioFatalities.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="527" data-original-width="874" height="192" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-En0zo3bcaME/XsHfv20iRaI/AAAAAAAABWM/dKedLHSD6MYLEUR3bn9iOtRX46M1gplagCNcBGAsYHQ/s320/OntarioFatalities.png" width="320" /></a></div>
Ontario is making some very small moves to "open up" the economy again, because we are seeing consistent downward trends in the number of new cases & deaths (see chart right, from my tracking <a href="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1uZld2djGYL-ZN_Lmq8KtewOHfjqoReRHgp-MY3eKOqs/edit#gid=0">spreadsheet</a>). That's great, and I'm super happy about the finally declining numbers (only several weeks later than I predicted), but what's the new normal actually going to be LIKE?<br />
<br />
I guess first, a quick roundup of what we actually accomplished with our very expensive lockdown:<br />
<ul>
<li>Kept number of cases low enough that health care system was not overwhelmed. This alone is absolutely massive in importance - places which failed at this saw case fatality rate double (from lack of treatment), plus of course, just a LOT more death due to higher case numbers... we could easily have been there ourselves, remember, just two doublings would have put us over capacity, and two doublings is less than a week of pre-lockdown normal behavior...</li>
<li>Got people to take it seriously. You need to do something major to even get the attention of some significant percentage of the population (who, rightly, are busy minding their own business/family/etc). Everybody learned how to social distance, and why. Everyone started washing their hands. Everyone changed their routines to isolate themselves and their families.</li>
<li>Bought time to get enough personal protective equipment to equip not just front-line medical staff, but also front-line service personnel in general, e.g. at my local supermarket. Even at the beginning of April, many of those hard working people STILL had nothing, whereas now, they all have masks and face shields. Even if they choose not to wear them sometimes, that's a lot better situation that before the lockdown!</li>
<li>Also bought time for treatments to advance. Doctors have better ideas now on what works for treatments, and what doesn't. Early hopes for repurposed drugs (*cough* hydroxychloroquine *cough*) seem to have mostly not panned out, but best practices are emerging. Related, several vaccine candidates are also now in (stage 1) trials, which is awesome. Expect most to fail, that's a reality for vaccine development...</li>
<li>Bought time for all business, etc to regroup and think through their strategy going forward. For instance, there is a big movement now in Toronto for restaurants to be allowed to open up patios on streets and sidewalks that wouldn't commonly be used, so that there can be more ROOM for spaced out seating. This kind of work is complicated, since the BIAs, the city, and the businesses around each other all need to coordinate. But I think it's a good plan for what a summer that doesn't destroy 50%+ of all restaurants (or 0.2% of all people) might actually look like. </li>
<li>Bought time to staff up and train contact tracing teams. As of 6 days ago, Toronto reportedly had 500 public health people doing that, which was still not enough to hit provincial targets of 90% of cases and contacts traced and contacted in one day, but it's awesome! Imagine how few people there were doing that 2 months ago...</li>
</ul>
Coming out of the lockdown, and into the "new normal", here's some more thoughts:<br />
<ul>
<li>I continue to think that we should all wear masks in any kind of situation where we have even the chance of exposure to strangers. So basically, all indoor enclosed environments except your home, like grocery stores, like buses, like elevators, like offices, etc. I don't understand why Ontario hasn't ordered that yet, it looks like 75% of people are compliant already (even absent an order), so surely this is worth nailing down?</li>
<li>On a similar note, anybody with even the least bit of sickness / cold symptoms needs to stay home. This is a bit harsh for people with allergies, but it obviously makes a world of sense, and if we have to change employment law to make it OK for people to take more sick days, I think that's a great change.</li>
<li>Contact tracing is key. What few infections DO continue to happen, we need to jump all over them to prevent them from turning into more. As Tory says, the last thing anybody wants is another wave and another lockdown.</li>
<li>To that end, I think large gatherings (>100?) are basically out either until as we have vaccine which everyone has taken (at least a year from now, likely more), OR we get some good evidence that with masks and other precautions, such events are not explosive disease vectors. And that kind of evidence isn't impossible to gather, I can imagine a sort of "testing before and after" festival which is allowed to happen precisely in order to test this, with attendees staying in self-quarantine until the after test can be conducted (5 days of incubation time enough?) and results come in. Heck I'd volunteer to participate in such an event, it'd be a welcome break from home-all-the-time-world... Anyway, expect to see sports and similar things basically focus on broadcast only - live crowds are OUT. Are those things financially sustainable broadcast only? Probably not, but maybe they can figure a new financial model out somehow?!?</li>
<li>On a similar front, I've seen quite a bit of action recently in
conferences going fully virtual. Typically for a much smaller ticket price than
we're used to seeing - but as an organizer, I know that actually, venue
and food are always the biggest costs, so if you can strike those, the
price really can be a LOT lower. Whether these so-called "conferences"
are actually any good is something I have no idea about, I'm actually
tempted to try one out not so much because I am compelled to go by my
interest in the subject (i.e. in normal times, I wouldn't have gone),
but because I want to see it in action, and the new lower price is a lot
more attractive too.</li>
<li>Many things like restaurants and yoga studios/etc are going to figure out social-distanced and enhanced-cleanliness equivalents to their normal operation. And sure it "won't be the same", but it'll be a LOT better than nothing, and perhaps with some real allowances by the city, and by customers, it'll actually be something we can all do on a regular basis, to keep those businesses viable. I'd KILL for some Ethiopian food right about now, that's for sure!</li>
<li>A lot more cars, bikes and scooters on the streets, and a lot less people on public transit. I know I have less than zero desire to get on a bus, or enter a subway station, even if they are not crowded, and I'm sure nearly everyone feels the same way. I expect we'll see downtown Toronto become a traffic nightmare as we open back up - well, even MORE of one than usual, since it was already bad even before this. My housemate is getting into biking and even buying a skateboard. I'm dusting off my old electric scooter. We're probably going to see a lot more automobile accidents later this year, after having seen less in the last few months. Hopefully all this will actually leave public transit so uncrowded enough for the people who HAVE to take it that it's not a menace to public health...</li>
<li>Meetup.com and it's various meetups, which is dear to my heart (since I basically run 4 of them!) just seems problematic to me. I think IN GENERAL people will be allowed to socialize with friends without wearing masks (i.e. you'll be able to hug your friend and have dinner/drinks together), but things like meetup, where nearly the entire idea is to meetup with strangers, that's another level, and I don't know if it's wise, or frankly, if people would come out even if I posted an event in e.g. September, when we're "fully unlocked" and in the new normal. We may just be in a world where all that kind of thing gets done virtually for a long long time.</li>
<li>As an interesting suggestion for how to make that a bit more workable, there needs to be a way to make contact tracing work even as you interact with strangers. So perhaps the organizer needs to collect contact details for all people who attend? I've heard this is being done at e.g. restaurants in Washington State, controversially. Obviously it doesn't prevent meetups from being a crossing / breeding grounds, but it does mean that they are more controllable in the case of an actual positive test than they would be otherwise, and perhaps that makes them more allowable? On a related note, I was also thinking that the gov requiring us each to carry around a little black notebook, where we note down the details of who we interact closely with each day, might be a pretty good idea in terms of how to speed up and make more through the contact tracing. Nobody need ever see it unless you get infected, so it basically amounts to a journal in 99% of cases. Even if 25% of the population did it, I can see it being pretty helpful, and I bet an announcement of it plus free distribution of materials (pads, small pencils) at e.g. library branches could get us to 25%...</li>
<li>International travel and borders are likely to remain basically zero'ed out for many more months. In fact, people are finally beginning to <a href="https://www.thestar.com/business/2020/05/08/why-flying-is-about-to-get-a-lot-more-expensive-for-good.html">clue in that travel isn't going to rebound</a> any time soon. Air tickets are going to be 2x to 3x their old prices, to compensate for extra spacing on the planes and decreased flight schedule (meaning, increased overhead). That kind of price increase is going to destroy demand, perhaps even more than the <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2020/05/is-flying-safe-coronavirus/611335/">fear of traveling</a> - the combo of those two AND the increased famailiary and acceptance of video conference call for business may leave the long-term need for flights at less than half of pre COVID-19 levels. Many of the "discount" airlines are going to go out of business before a recovery in travel can even begin. Boeing said some stuff along this line and then had to walk it back to avoid some customer backlash, but it's the truth, and honestly Boeing itself may not survive - certainly their passenger aircraft division is going to bleed for a decade or more.</li>
<li>There are lots of people speculating about our geopolitical futures as well, but I'll hold off on those for another post :-)</li>
<li>I also feel like this post just sort of bounces along the obvious, and there are many many more things which we all need to work out locally. We're in a weird world where we need to reinvent how we do EVERYTHING, and that level of uncertainty is a bit bewildering. We're not all dealing well with it either. Maybe I also need a post about COVID-19 psychology and sociology?!?</li>
</ul>
Eric Boydhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16717392630309707057noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8321448421187115364.post-79336152905864648802020-05-12T17:40:00.000-07:002020-05-12T17:44:45.046-07:00Painting ProcessHere's a behind the scenes look at what goes into making a painting. There are basically four big steps:<br />
<ol>
</ol>
<a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-iXY2-qd_j-U/Xrs_DuyLTNI/AAAAAAAABU0/r8mb_AenNiUnwZkupQuYS98FxLVrZkqUgCNcBGAsYHQ/s1600/Walle_rubicsCube.jpeg" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="720" data-original-width="1280" height="180" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-iXY2-qd_j-U/Xrs_DuyLTNI/AAAAAAAABU0/r8mb_AenNiUnwZkupQuYS98FxLVrZkqUgCNcBGAsYHQ/s320/Walle_rubicsCube.jpeg" width="320" /></a>1) Image selection. This step actually takes a potentially unlimited of time, and it's all digital for me. I come up with an idea ("robots!") and then I start using google image search, looking for interesting candidate images. Or a combination of images, or whatever (this is the "creative freedom" part - so far I've mostly confined myself to picking ready made images). I collect a whole bunch of options ("save image as..."), and then I basically stare at them and try to figure out how hard they might be to paint. How many different colors are there? Are there any blended areas where colors fade into each other (this is hard to do with paint)? How much detail is there? Any weirdnesses? (like bokeh, also difficult with paint). Is the color palate appealing / does it have enough contrast to look good? Is the source image high enough resolution) to make it work at canvas scale (even HD really isn't sufficient, I need a BIG image)? Finally I'll pick one that I think is doable at just beyond my current level of skill (i.e. will require a bit of a stretch on my part, trying something new). My skill level has been increasing rapidly, so recent images are much more complex than initial images. Pictured is the unaltered image of Wall-E that I choose this time.<br />
<ol>
</ol>
<a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-l-G9jeWsBG0/Xrs_YIzhOAI/AAAAAAAABU8/M2v2EBk0VvsPRcNbdR7WLSewzwjIcmkBQCNcBGAsYHQ/s1600/Walle_rubicsCube_canvas.png" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="900" data-original-width="1153" height="249" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-l-G9jeWsBG0/Xrs_YIzhOAI/AAAAAAAABU8/M2v2EBk0VvsPRcNbdR7WLSewzwjIcmkBQCNcBGAsYHQ/s320/Walle_rubicsCube_canvas.png" width="320" /></a>2) Digital image preparation. Once I pick an image, then there is usually a problem with aspect ratio or framing. The image aspect ratio has to match the canvas exactly! And, it needs to at least give a nod to the "rule of thirds" for proper framing - this is super important for the overall look of the painting! So I'll have to either crop, or extend in a direction which doesn't require too much detail (e.g. for The Return, I cropped the sides AND added some sky to the top). I'll print one copy of the final image in full color (8"x11" is ~1/4 scale, if you fill the page). And then I'll "edge-detect" the image (reducing it down into a series of lines), make it 4x as big, and print that out for:<br />
<ol>
</ol>
3) <a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-TFxWzakcuHw/XrtATVzuhoI/AAAAAAAABVs/pFtJh_EeN8kU5Tnu87-53zq7zjrtisR8ACNcBGAsYHQ/s1600/WallE_trace_print.JPG" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1200" data-original-width="1600" height="240" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-TFxWzakcuHw/XrtATVzuhoI/AAAAAAAABVs/pFtJh_EeN8kU5Tnu87-53zq7zjrtisR8ACNcBGAsYHQ/s320/WallE_trace_print.JPG" width="320" /></a>Tracing. I'll cut & tape together the four edge-detect pages, and press them into the back of the canvas. Then using a DIY light-table, I'll trace the outline into the canvas. Typically this is pretty inexact - the papers move around, the edge-detect lines are not perfect / even present sometimes, my pencil strokes don't match those, etc. So there will also be a whole second phase where I remove the edge-detect papers, and compare traced image on the canvas to the smaller printed image, and correct the trace, region by region, adjusting lines and adding details as required. This step is essential, as I learned on Strider Alpha, where I didn't do it, and things like k<a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-nIrTtAvCTJw/Xrs_2JFYcDI/AAAAAAAABVc/KOtA3X_Uq9MyeFufosN-q6ns-L39fJ4qgCEwYBhgLKs4DAL1OcqwOb5VWSzo4YDmeE3GaCS7WB08u7rTk62vib9MEOkvHbFMldY0XYSXpc8IrxfJl8uVnR8k8PjhFpt0fVEZNRktwX8NFnJMu8GD5LdIeg03MK2UFUXYhcLXK_I_ppIvezIx37yqshueZpJ0Imm5O3moAvthkqW9AITAhbrCLyx40HFEjlTlcCVVcpzK9T1ZnOzVwaOkQY798xhcOlL-QG87DSisC4IqLv7rHIN-AvJnN8dJFdcDFRS0Q9yE6Rjh8dd6NIaj_s0kqmvOnjsnQU8bhEDoy61P6FnO2w754MLQAzKnOhoftNHGfm18sf0qf2jQfQmlbS2YU27ZaDPFzlmR3FScwaodjBRBWqT5ARzd3kZiyo0yKuEFaJ1q3vTHCZNpS8p5ytuupMLlZhnVb_7G278Kp3Pl9KO9FnlxX2xIdodsLlJVEA29GnGB_TrXp71eJjE2OHvspy-hewV-lNUyyrxqNN2oI9jVZ-Q3hhgjienqL5en-sid7nXh3XOFe8DdDM1HBxYfqyXFGydSuqeXAg9C3tNQXMiHg6NWoCnpjWuFilqiIGnnAaJMWbNSdoVWJipC-IBPODCGjcgDIVfxE-_mG456MYQ7uMM-F7fUF/s1600/IMG_6748.JPG" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1600" data-original-width="1200" height="320" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-nIrTtAvCTJw/Xrs_2JFYcDI/AAAAAAAABVc/KOtA3X_Uq9MyeFufosN-q6ns-L39fJ4qgCEwYBhgLKs4DAL1OcqwOb5VWSzo4YDmeE3GaCS7WB08u7rTk62vib9MEOkvHbFMldY0XYSXpc8IrxfJl8uVnR8k8PjhFpt0fVEZNRktwX8NFnJMu8GD5LdIeg03MK2UFUXYhcLXK_I_ppIvezIx37yqshueZpJ0Imm5O3moAvthkqW9AITAhbrCLyx40HFEjlTlcCVVcpzK9T1ZnOzVwaOkQY798xhcOlL-QG87DSisC4IqLv7rHIN-AvJnN8dJFdcDFRS0Q9yE6Rjh8dd6NIaj_s0kqmvOnjsnQU8bhEDoy61P6FnO2w754MLQAzKnOhoftNHGfm18sf0qf2jQfQmlbS2YU27ZaDPFzlmR3FScwaodjBRBWqT5ARzd3kZiyo0yKuEFaJ1q3vTHCZNpS8p5ytuupMLlZhnVb_7G278Kp3Pl9KO9FnlxX2xIdodsLlJVEA29GnGB_TrXp71eJjE2OHvspy-hewV-lNUyyrxqNN2oI9jVZ-Q3hhgjienqL5en-sid7nXh3XOFe8DdDM1HBxYfqyXFGydSuqeXAg9C3tNQXMiHg6NWoCnpjWuFilqiIGnnAaJMWbNSdoVWJipC-IBPODCGjcgDIVfxE-_mG456MYQ7uMM-F7fUF/s320/IMG_6748.JPG" width="240" /></a>nees, shields, and the boat just were not correct (or even present) from the tracing, but I didn't notice until I had way to much paint on the canvas to fix it...<br />
<ol>
</ol>
4) Painting. Really the painting process is the easiest part, though it's also longer than image prep or tracing. The most challenging part of the painting is the color mixing, it's quite difficult to end up with the color you want starting only from the primaries (blue, yellow, red, white, black). Some colors in fact seem to be impossible - I could not make a teal, despite trying for an hour. And of course metallic is impossible - I later obtained a silver base color to make metallic possible. The other hard part is to get the detail in, my smallest brush was previously still pretty large, and getting a fine line is difficult - though I have seen other people accomplish way better lines using the same equipment, so obviously it's PEBBAF (problem exists between brus<a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-_adK7O88__I/Xrs_26_KjqI/AAAAAAAABVk/OSCwZ0JV2tQ0lcn39ESZar2AgebF2wZ6QCEwYBhgLKs4DAL1OcqyhsJS7Xx1z8TPUL7NZvQ8TfwMGCBZYd0_31xtDXTvH1g62HVPtL0_dKciNybmZNg_JreYj6XgLSN7BYUhIXUO8gQkoGUVwmvkLL8_YQRvCKSN3AUo2vTEjQFDp-nZRPFYTVRuwVer1eEtOHdxR6QwYMu3QN3WGwAFUDA1aMrs-O7FbnmBPIc922OfNOf-ucb-50r6mO4DaXyG-q2_G95hqAz9Np9FWM_gabSOl5xflqg-cAe5crQ1WNwQtbq684jIVmkoaLRn1eZ57-waR5qfrUuaUyu9PKVA5kYZA4NhhLBa9ytdjHkd1syA_NeMhiB7FzymKI99-Xm6nwPeICJy8VewIYXDy8ORoNve9rZiZrvMgBF61uDV3gjHFBJP6CfLINL3OsBz0NauCDJf14dI6zkzU1fFSDFSTnY7dmJ1tWBRA-EaHBvxNunup3xL46gMEGv8xu2P-PeUbbYPqfnQ3FbbLkPL9l12nPeknal6dJo6gsditST3bqTsgE6gZ1Ha4XSOt5hcG-RUhwgomMS11PkxqvUq49bdMWRCpER_7qta3eWkYMD9AUxZlm52nDxQhNPJVDMXZq5aGWyEv5AsjCORIXWeR6bqeMMWG7fUF/s1600/IMG_6782.JPG" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1600" data-original-width="1200" height="320" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-_adK7O88__I/Xrs_26_KjqI/AAAAAAAABVk/OSCwZ0JV2tQ0lcn39ESZar2AgebF2wZ6QCEwYBhgLKs4DAL1OcqyhsJS7Xx1z8TPUL7NZvQ8TfwMGCBZYd0_31xtDXTvH1g62HVPtL0_dKciNybmZNg_JreYj6XgLSN7BYUhIXUO8gQkoGUVwmvkLL8_YQRvCKSN3AUo2vTEjQFDp-nZRPFYTVRuwVer1eEtOHdxR6QwYMu3QN3WGwAFUDA1aMrs-O7FbnmBPIc922OfNOf-ucb-50r6mO4DaXyG-q2_G95hqAz9Np9FWM_gabSOl5xflqg-cAe5crQ1WNwQtbq684jIVmkoaLRn1eZ57-waR5qfrUuaUyu9PKVA5kYZA4NhhLBa9ytdjHkd1syA_NeMhiB7FzymKI99-Xm6nwPeICJy8VewIYXDy8ORoNve9rZiZrvMgBF61uDV3gjHFBJP6CfLINL3OsBz0NauCDJf14dI6zkzU1fFSDFSTnY7dmJ1tWBRA-EaHBvxNunup3xL46gMEGv8xu2P-PeUbbYPqfnQ3FbbLkPL9l12nPeknal6dJo6gsditST3bqTsgE6gZ1Ha4XSOt5hcG-RUhwgomMS11PkxqvUq49bdMWRCpER_7qta3eWkYMD9AUxZlm52nDxQhNPJVDMXZq5aGWyEv5AsjCORIXWeR6bqeMMWG7fUF/s320/IMG_6782.JPG" width="240" /></a>h and floor)... one of the upsides to painting is, you really can go back and fix a lot of mistakes. Just paint over it in white, and then paint it again. If you have to match colors on the borders, that increases the challenge, but it can still be done. Anyway, most of my paintings to date are basically paint-by-numbers, trying to fill in the various areas with color & texture that makes them match the target image. It's inexact, and especially for texture, there is a lot of experimentation and failure (see: water for The Return), but it's typically fun, and progress is fast - the entire painting can be done in 3-5 two hour sessions, each of which adds satisfying levels of new awesomeness. I've never been a perfectionist, so for me, typically the painting is DONE when all the white of the canvas is gone. Obviously other people could continue to obsess about the details for several more session beyond that, but I've learned already that I'm as liable to make it worse as I am to make it better, so that will have to wait for when I have higher skill!<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-fyRoPfXcUbM/Xrs_2RbVkpI/AAAAAAAABVg/WR78cQ5hgb43xk-dDVg8GP1pfcVgKtm7wCEwYBhgLKs4DAL1OcqyyEN3kfkwW5UMmjb1AmwCRjNSl4xvBrCmL--naE94TxVfkbYLHYBe0-3CqeF6wOmzwRO2MtQGufyNxPtdbCOq9eMlLSC2IlqoslsJxZ6pFe5BZskTjDNlpOIxnHrqJcifNUHiv2O7-UKGZN-uhbn2Fdw-x_1SITRVC6up8PsAfOWNTtpwLFZj5DYXSkucfbc2yteFoKayYrR85ka8weuuL_fab9goCIl4HaDXnNpZlG_g0B4mWC9KYkE0qbmFv8r8CqE5H1Mt2FA2ntNzFZzg9IAIF-_KpgiaheHkIjJ079oeGgvhEJboi0ckt3AHor6ZK6GFQJxoQk7uxfKyIljxj8YgzU_I0GIE4LSu8Rf8h_w_TV2Gb82b9SVHsdiOS6f4YsxSeoSPsr6ZBe4DEYlgsgNOU8BqHIs7ycyAs9ZBI10EdXrpcfzohnpaacQON-mAZ2Y6YYqFce1eKv__uSiAXxqPz4MFh1s4x-0BVRgVYk97g6Q23Y9y8PwKPf65Vh5tQ96J9Ei6YbyjdtuYosG_empueWAqBZ0oldDorLl3qkNGjruJ0GflMHeRpNMRG5XwrWYHV8xCkv9dPCU9-yv76xB4vUPFHCRIgMOeG7fUF/s1600/IMG_6781.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1600" data-original-width="1200" height="320" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-fyRoPfXcUbM/Xrs_2RbVkpI/AAAAAAAABVg/WR78cQ5hgb43xk-dDVg8GP1pfcVgKtm7wCEwYBhgLKs4DAL1OcqyyEN3kfkwW5UMmjb1AmwCRjNSl4xvBrCmL--naE94TxVfkbYLHYBe0-3CqeF6wOmzwRO2MtQGufyNxPtdbCOq9eMlLSC2IlqoslsJxZ6pFe5BZskTjDNlpOIxnHrqJcifNUHiv2O7-UKGZN-uhbn2Fdw-x_1SITRVC6up8PsAfOWNTtpwLFZj5DYXSkucfbc2yteFoKayYrR85ka8weuuL_fab9goCIl4HaDXnNpZlG_g0B4mWC9KYkE0qbmFv8r8CqE5H1Mt2FA2ntNzFZzg9IAIF-_KpgiaheHkIjJ079oeGgvhEJboi0ckt3AHor6ZK6GFQJxoQk7uxfKyIljxj8YgzU_I0GIE4LSu8Rf8h_w_TV2Gb82b9SVHsdiOS6f4YsxSeoSPsr6ZBe4DEYlgsgNOU8BqHIs7ycyAs9ZBI10EdXrpcfzohnpaacQON-mAZ2Y6YYqFce1eKv__uSiAXxqPz4MFh1s4x-0BVRgVYk97g6Q23Y9y8PwKPf65Vh5tQ96J9Ei6YbyjdtuYosG_empueWAqBZ0oldDorLl3qkNGjruJ0GflMHeRpNMRG5XwrWYHV8xCkv9dPCU9-yv76xB4vUPFHCRIgMOeG7fUF/s320/IMG_6781.JPG" width="240" /></a></div>
<ol>
</ol>
And that's how a painting gets made. And then of course, the all important:<br />
<br />
5) Blog about it :-) Eric Boydhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16717392630309707057noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8321448421187115364.post-46196804765125880582020-04-15T18:20:00.000-07:002020-04-15T18:20:30.056-07:00Coronavirus Ontario Long Tail & Reopening Thoughts<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-MYeuhSSznVA/XpeyKgm--rI/AAAAAAAABUE/QsRnHvDZMWcBgidyTA55RHx4p-0s6-pYQCNcBGAsYHQ/s1600/OntarioCases_coronavirusDOTapp.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="729" data-original-width="908" height="256" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-MYeuhSSznVA/XpeyKgm--rI/AAAAAAAABUE/QsRnHvDZMWcBgidyTA55RHx4p-0s6-pYQCNcBGAsYHQ/s320/OntarioCases_coronavirusDOTapp.png" width="320" /></a></div>
Lots of people are talking now about when and how we're going to be able to unlock and get "back to normal", so I figured I'd join that corus. Some interesting links first:<br />
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.sfchronicle.com/politics/article/California-s-coronavirus-reopening-Gov-Gavin-15200205.php">California’s coronavirus reopening: Gov. Gavin Newsom spells out six criteria</a> - some of them seem like they will be really difficult to do!</li>
<li><a href="https://www.flightradar24.com/data/statistics">FlightRadar</a> - shows that commercial flights are at about 30% of their previous level, and at least half of those that remain are cargo. In fact Air Canada is actually retrofitting several of it's passenger planes into cargo planes, to help carry PPE from China to Canada.</li>
<li><a href="https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/">World-o-Meter Coronavirus</a> - has some great <b>sortable</b> tables of coronavirus stats for most countries in the world.</li>
<li><a href="https://www.scribd.com/document/455735127/COVID-19-in-Canada-Technical-Briefing#fullscreen&from_embed">COVID-19 in Canada: Using data and modelling to inform public health action</a> - slide deck (PDF) used to lay out Canada wide models. It was released on the 8th, with some predictions for the 16th - we're actually coming out a few thousand more than their middle scenario, but well below the worse-case scenario. More about this below.</li>
</ul>
In my <a href="http://www.digitalcrusader.ca/2020/04/coronavirus-long-term-thoughts.html">previous post</a>, I predicted Ontario would end this phase mid May with between 8-12k cases. Sadly, in the last few days, we HAVE NOT seen the kinds of declines in numbers of new infections that I was hoping for. Here's a table of <a href="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1uZld2djGYL-ZN_Lmq8KtewOHfjqoReRHgp-MY3eKOqs/edit#gid=0">how it's been going</a>:<br />
<table border="1" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" dir="ltr" style="border-collapse: collapse; border: none; font-family: Arial; font-size: 10pt; table-layout: fixed; width: 0px;"><colgroup><col width="100"></col><col width="86"></col><col width="80"></col><col width="67"></col><col width="94"></col><col width="64"></col></colgroup><tbody>
<tr style="height: 51px;"><td data-sheets-value="{"1":2,"2":"Reporting Date"}" style="font-weight: bold; overflow: hidden; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom; white-space: normal; word-wrap: break-word; wrap-strategy: 4;">Reporting Date</td><td data-sheets-value="{"1":2,"2":"Confirmed"}" style="font-weight: bold; overflow: hidden; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom; white-space: normal; word-wrap: break-word; wrap-strategy: 4;">Confirmed</td><td data-sheets-value="{"1":2,"2":"Daily new confirmed"}" style="background-color: #fff2cc; font-weight: bold; overflow: hidden; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: center; vertical-align: bottom; white-space: normal; word-wrap: break-word; wrap-strategy: 4;">Daily new confirmed</td><td data-sheets-numberformat="[null,3,"0%",1]" data-sheets-value="{"1":2,"2":"Daily Growth Rate"}" style="background-color: #fff2cc; font-weight: bold; overflow: hidden; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: center; vertical-align: bottom; white-space: normal; word-wrap: break-word; wrap-strategy: 4;">Daily Growth Rate</td><td data-sheets-numberformat="[null,3,"0.0%",1]" data-sheets-value="{"1":2,"2":"Compound 7 day rate"}" style="background-color: #fff2cc; font-weight: bold; overflow: hidden; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; vertical-align: bottom; white-space: normal; word-wrap: break-word; wrap-strategy: 4;">Compound 7 day rate</td><td data-sheets-value="{"1":2,"2":"Daily tests done"}" style="background-color: #fff2cc; font-weight: bold; overflow: hidden; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: center; vertical-align: bottom; white-space: normal; word-wrap: break-word; wrap-strategy: 4;">Daily tests done</td></tr>
<tr style="height: 21px;"><td data-sheets-numberformat="[null,5,"ddd\", \"mmm\" \"d"]" data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":43936}" style="overflow: hidden; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">Wed, Apr 15</td><td data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":8447}" style="overflow: hidden; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">8447</td><td data-sheets-formula="=(R[0]C[-1]-R[1]C[-1])" data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":494}" style="background-color: #fff2cc; font-weight: bold; overflow: hidden; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: center; vertical-align: bottom;">494</td><td data-sheets-formula="=R[0]C[-1]/R[1]C[-2]" data-sheets-numberformat="[null,3,"0.0%",1]" data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":0.0621149251854646}" style="background-color: #fff2cc; overflow: hidden; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: center; vertical-align: bottom;">6.2%</td><td data-sheets-formula="=power(R[0]C[-3]/R[7]C[-3],1/7)-1" data-sheets-numberformat="[null,3,"0.0%",1]" data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":0.06954650395701756}" style="background-color: #fff2cc; font-weight: bold; overflow: hidden; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">7.0%</td><td data-sheets-formula="=R[0]C[-8]-R[1]C[-8]" data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":6010}" style="background-color: #fff2cc; overflow: hidden; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: center; vertical-align: bottom;">6010</td></tr>
<tr style="height: 21px;"><td data-sheets-numberformat="[null,5,"ddd\", \"mmm\" \"d"]" data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":43935}" style="overflow: hidden; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">Tue, Apr 14</td><td data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":7953}" style="overflow: hidden; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">7953</td><td data-sheets-formula="=(R[0]C[-1]-R[1]C[-1])" data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":483}" style="background-color: #fff2cc; font-weight: bold; overflow: hidden; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: center; vertical-align: bottom;">483</td><td data-sheets-formula="=R[0]C[-1]/R[1]C[-2]" data-sheets-numberformat="[null,3,"0.0%",1]" data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":0.06465863453815261}" style="background-color: #fff2cc; overflow: hidden; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: center; vertical-align: bottom;">6.5%</td><td data-sheets-formula="=power(R[0]C[-3]/R[7]C[-3],1/7)-1" data-sheets-numberformat="[null,3,"0.0%",1]" data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":0.07718683723858133}" style="background-color: #fff2cc; font-weight: bold; overflow: hidden; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">7.7%</td><td data-sheets-formula="=R[0]C[-8]-R[1]C[-8]" data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":4852}" style="background-color: #fff2cc; overflow: hidden; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: center; vertical-align: bottom;">4852</td></tr>
<tr style="height: 21px;"><td data-sheets-numberformat="[null,5,"ddd\", \"mmm\" \"d"]" data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":43934}" style="overflow: hidden; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">Mon, Apr 13</td><td data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":7470}" style="overflow: hidden; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">7470</td><td data-sheets-formula="=(R[0]C[-1]-R[1]C[-1])" data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":421}" style="background-color: #fff2cc; font-weight: bold; overflow: hidden; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: center; vertical-align: bottom;">421</td><td data-sheets-formula="=R[0]C[-1]/R[1]C[-2]" data-sheets-numberformat="[null,3,"0.0%",1]" data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":0.05972478365725635}" style="background-color: #fff2cc; overflow: hidden; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: center; vertical-align: bottom;">6.0%</td><td data-sheets-formula="=power(R[0]C[-3]/R[7]C[-3],1/7)-1" data-sheets-numberformat="[null,3,"0.0%",1]" data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":0.08041383639847655}" style="background-color: #fff2cc; font-weight: bold; overflow: hidden; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">8.0%</td><td data-sheets-formula="=R[0]C[-8]-R[1]C[-8]" data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":5065}" style="background-color: #fff2cc; overflow: hidden; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: center; vertical-align: bottom;">5065</td></tr>
<tr style="height: 21px;"><td data-sheets-numberformat="[null,5,"ddd\", \"mmm\" \"d"]" data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":43933}" style="overflow: hidden; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">Sun, Apr 12</td><td data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":7049}" style="overflow: hidden; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">7049</td><td data-sheets-formula="=(R[0]C[-1]-R[1]C[-1])" data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":401}" style="background-color: #fff2cc; font-weight: bold; overflow: hidden; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: center; vertical-align: bottom;">401</td><td data-sheets-formula="=R[0]C[-1]/R[1]C[-2]" data-sheets-numberformat="[null,3,"0.0%",1]" data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":0.06031889290012034}" style="background-color: #fff2cc; overflow: hidden; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: center; vertical-align: bottom;">6.0%</td><td data-sheets-formula="=power(R[0]C[-3]/R[7]C[-3],1/7)-1" data-sheets-numberformat="[null,3,"0.0%",1]" data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":0.08284397674145216}" style="background-color: #fff2cc; font-weight: bold; overflow: hidden; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">8.3%</td><td data-sheets-formula="=R[0]C[-8]-R[1]C[-8]" data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":6844}" style="background-color: #fff2cc; overflow: hidden; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: center; vertical-align: bottom;">6844</td></tr>
<tr style="height: 21px;"><td data-sheets-numberformat="[null,5,"ddd\", \"mmm\" \"d"]" data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":43932}" style="overflow: hidden; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">Sat, Apr 11</td><td data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":6648}" style="overflow: hidden; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">6648</td><td data-sheets-formula="=(R[0]C[-1]-R[1]C[-1])" data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":411}" style="background-color: #fff2cc; font-weight: bold; overflow: hidden; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: center; vertical-align: bottom;">411</td><td data-sheets-formula="=R[0]C[-1]/R[1]C[-2]" data-sheets-numberformat="[null,3,"0.0%",1]" data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":0.0658970658970659}" style="background-color: #fff2cc; overflow: hidden; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: center; vertical-align: bottom;">6.6%</td><td data-sheets-formula="=power(R[0]C[-3]/R[7]C[-3],1/7)-1" data-sheets-numberformat="[null,3,"0.0%",1]" data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":0.09028647961074454}" style="background-color: #fff2cc; font-weight: bold; overflow: hidden; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">9.0%</td><td data-sheets-formula="=R[0]C[-8]-R[1]C[-8]" data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":2050}" style="background-color: #fff2cc; overflow: hidden; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: center; vertical-align: bottom;">2050</td></tr>
<tr style="height: 21px;"><td data-sheets-numberformat="[null,5,"ddd\", \"mmm\" \"d"]" data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":43931}" style="overflow: hidden; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">Fri, Apr 10</td><td data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":6237}" style="overflow: hidden; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">6237</td><td data-sheets-formula="=(R[0]C[-1]-R[1]C[-1])" data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":478}" style="background-color: #fff2cc; font-weight: bold; overflow: hidden; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: center; vertical-align: bottom;">478</td><td data-sheets-formula="=R[0]C[-1]/R[1]C[-2]" data-sheets-numberformat="[null,3,"0.0%",1]" data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":0.08300052092377148}" style="background-color: #fff2cc; overflow: hidden; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: center; vertical-align: bottom;">8.3%</td><td data-sheets-formula="=power(R[0]C[-3]/R[7]C[-3],1/7)-1" data-sheets-numberformat="[null,3,"0.0%",1]" data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":0.09735309536477765}" style="background-color: #fff2cc; font-weight: bold; overflow: hidden; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">9.7%</td><td data-sheets-formula="=R[0]C[-8]-R[1]C[-8]" data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":5573}" style="background-color: #fff2cc; overflow: hidden; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: center; vertical-align: bottom;">5573</td></tr>
<tr style="height: 21px;"><td data-sheets-numberformat="[null,5,"ddd\", \"mmm\" \"d"]" data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":43930}" style="overflow: hidden; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">Thu, Apr 9</td><td data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":5759}" style="overflow: hidden; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">5759</td><td data-sheets-formula="=(R[0]C[-1]-R[1]C[-1])" data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":483}" style="background-color: #fff2cc; font-weight: bold; overflow: hidden; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: center; vertical-align: bottom;">483</td><td data-sheets-formula="=R[0]C[-1]/R[1]C[-2]" data-sheets-numberformat="[null,3,"0.0%",1]" data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":0.09154662623199393}" style="background-color: #fff2cc; overflow: hidden; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: center; vertical-align: bottom;">9.2%</td><td data-sheets-formula="=power(R[0]C[-3]/R[7]C[-3],1/7)-1" data-sheets-numberformat="[null,3,"0.0%",1]" data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":0.10891074540747891}" style="background-color: #fff2cc; font-weight: bold; overflow: hidden; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">10.9%</td><td data-sheets-formula="=R[0]C[-8]-R[1]C[-8]" data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":4097}" style="background-color: #fff2cc; overflow: hidden; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: center; vertical-align: bottom;">4097</td></tr>
<tr style="height: 21px;"><td data-sheets-numberformat="[null,5,"ddd\", \"mmm\" \"d"]" data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":43929}" style="overflow: hidden; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">Wed, Apr 8</td><td data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":5276}" style="overflow: hidden; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">5276</td><td data-sheets-formula="=(R[0]C[-1]-R[1]C[-1])" data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":550}" style="background-color: #fff2cc; font-weight: bold; overflow: hidden; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: center; vertical-align: bottom;">550</td><td data-sheets-formula="=R[0]C[-1]/R[1]C[-2]" data-sheets-numberformat="[null,3,"0%",1]" data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":0.11637748624629708}" style="background-color: #fff2cc; overflow: hidden; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: center; vertical-align: bottom;">12%</td><td data-sheets-formula="=power(R[0]C[-3]/R[7]C[-3],1/7)-1" data-sheets-numberformat="[null,3,"0.0%",1]" data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":0.11963807474905486}" style="background-color: #fff2cc; font-weight: bold; overflow: hidden; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">12.0%</td><td data-sheets-formula="=R[0]C[-8]-R[1]C[-8]" data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":3237}" style="background-color: #fff2cc; overflow: hidden; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: center; vertical-align: bottom;">3237</td></tr>
<tr style="height: 21px;"><td data-sheets-numberformat="[null,5,"ddd\", \"mmm\" \"d"]" data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":43928}" style="overflow: hidden; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">Tue, Apr 7</td><td data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":4726}" style="overflow: hidden; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">4726</td><td data-sheets-formula="=(R[0]C[-1]-R[1]C[-1])" data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":379}" style="background-color: #fff2cc; font-weight: bold; overflow: hidden; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: center; vertical-align: bottom;">379</td><td data-sheets-formula="=R[0]C[-1]/R[1]C[-2]" data-sheets-numberformat="[null,3,"0%",1]" data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":0.08718656544743501}" style="background-color: #fff2cc; overflow: hidden; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: center; vertical-align: bottom;">9%</td><td data-sheets-formula="=power(R[0]C[-3]/R[7]C[-3],1/7)-1" data-sheets-numberformat="[null,3,"0.0%",1]" data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":0.13348491164173937}" style="background-color: #fff2cc; font-weight: bold; overflow: hidden; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">13.3%</td><td data-sheets-formula="=R[0]C[-8]-R[1]C[-8]" data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":2568}" style="background-color: #fff2cc; overflow: hidden; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: center; vertical-align: bottom;">2568</td></tr>
<tr style="height: 21px;"><td data-sheets-numberformat="[null,5,"ddd\", \"mmm\" \"d"]" data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":43927}" style="overflow: hidden; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">Mon, Apr 6</td><td data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":4347}" style="overflow: hidden; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">4347</td><td data-sheets-formula="=(R[0]C[-1]-R[1]C[-1])" data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":309}" style="background-color: #fff2cc; font-weight: bold; overflow: hidden; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: center; vertical-align: bottom;">309</td><td data-sheets-formula="=R[0]C[-1]/R[1]C[-2]" data-sheets-numberformat="[null,3,"0%",1]" data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":0.07652303120356613}" style="background-color: #fff2cc; overflow: hidden; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: center; vertical-align: bottom;">8%</td><td data-sheets-formula="=power(R[0]C[-3]/R[7]C[-3],1/7)-1" data-sheets-numberformat="[null,3,"0.0%",1]" data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":0.14295751535686718}" style="background-color: #fff2cc; font-weight: bold; overflow: hidden; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">14.3%</td><td data-sheets-formula="=R[0]C[-8]-R[1]C[-8]" data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":3750}" style="background-color: #fff2cc; overflow: hidden; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: center; vertical-align: bottom;">3750</td></tr>
<tr style="height: 21px;"><td data-sheets-numberformat="[null,5,"ddd\", \"mmm\" \"d"]" data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":43926}" style="overflow: hidden; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">Sun, Apr 5</td><td data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":4038}" style="overflow: hidden; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">4038</td><td data-sheets-formula="=(R[0]C[-1]-R[1]C[-1])" data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":408}" style="background-color: #fff2cc; font-weight: bold; overflow: hidden; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: center; vertical-align: bottom;">408</td><td data-sheets-formula="=R[0]C[-1]/R[1]C[-2]" data-sheets-numberformat="[null,3,"0%",1]" data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":0.11239669421487604}" style="background-color: #fff2cc; overflow: hidden; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: center; vertical-align: bottom;">11%</td><td data-sheets-formula="=power(R[0]C[-3]/R[7]C[-3],1/7)-1" data-sheets-numberformat="[null,3,"0.0%",1]" data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":0.17243552746476287}" style="background-color: #fff2cc; font-weight: bold; overflow: hidden; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">17.2%</td><td data-sheets-formula="=R[0]C[-8]-R[1]C[-8]" data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":3708}" style="background-color: #fff2cc; overflow: hidden; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: center; vertical-align: bottom;">3708</td></tr>
<tr style="height: 21px;"><td data-sheets-numberformat="[null,5,"ddd\", \"mmm\" \"d"]" data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":43925}" style="overflow: hidden; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">Sat, Apr 4</td><td data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":3630}" style="overflow: hidden; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">3630</td><td data-sheets-formula="=(R[0]C[-1]-R[1]C[-1])" data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":375}" style="background-color: #fff2cc; font-weight: bold; overflow: hidden; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: center; vertical-align: bottom;">375</td><td data-sheets-formula="=R[0]C[-1]/R[1]C[-2]" data-sheets-numberformat="[null,3,"0%",1]" data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":0.1152073732718894}" style="background-color: #fff2cc; overflow: hidden; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: center; vertical-align: bottom;">12%</td><td data-sheets-formula="=power(R[0]C[-3]/R[7]C[-3],1/7)-1" data-sheets-numberformat="[null,3,"0.0%",1]" data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":0.17934287010695615}" style="background-color: #fff2cc; font-weight: bold; overflow: hidden; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">17.9%</td><td data-sheets-formula="=R[0]C[-8]-R[1]C[-8]" data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":4585}" style="background-color: #fff2cc; overflow: hidden; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: center; vertical-align: bottom;">4585</td></tr>
<tr style="height: 21px;"><td data-sheets-numberformat="[null,5,"ddd\", \"mmm\" \"d"]" data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":43924}" style="overflow: hidden; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">Fri, Apr 3</td><td data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":3255}" style="overflow: hidden; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">3255</td><td data-sheets-formula="=(R[0]C[-1]-R[1]C[-1])" data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":462}" style="background-color: #fff2cc; font-weight: bold; overflow: hidden; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: center; vertical-align: bottom;">462</td><td data-sheets-formula="=R[0]C[-1]/R[1]C[-2]" data-sheets-numberformat="[null,3,"0%",1]" data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":0.16541353383458646}" style="background-color: #fff2cc; overflow: hidden; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: center; vertical-align: bottom;">17%</td><td data-sheets-formula="=power(R[0]C[-3]/R[7]C[-3],1/7)-1" data-sheets-numberformat="[null,3,"0.0%",1]" data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":0.1848336831236832}" style="background-color: #fff2cc; font-weight: bold; overflow: hidden; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">18.5%</td><td data-sheets-formula="=R[0]C[-8]-R[1]C[-8]" data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":4020}" style="background-color: #fff2cc; overflow: hidden; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: center; vertical-align: bottom;">4020</td></tr>
<tr style="height: 21px;"><td data-sheets-numberformat="[null,5,"ddd\", \"mmm\" \"d"]" data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":43923}" style="overflow: hidden; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">Thu, Apr 2</td><td data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":2793}" style="overflow: hidden; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">2793</td><td data-sheets-formula="=(R[0]C[-1]-R[1]C[-1])" data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":401}" style="background-color: #fff2cc; font-weight: bold; overflow: hidden; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: center; vertical-align: bottom;">401</td><td data-sheets-formula="=R[0]C[-1]/R[1]C[-2]" data-sheets-numberformat="[null,3,"0%",1]" data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":0.16764214046822742}" style="background-color: #fff2cc; overflow: hidden; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: center; vertical-align: bottom;">17%</td><td data-sheets-formula="=power(R[0]C[-3]/R[7]C[-3],1/7)-1" data-sheets-numberformat="[null,3,"0.0%",1]" data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":0.1836579937034608}" style="background-color: #fff2cc; font-weight: bold; overflow: hidden; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">18.4%</td><td data-sheets-formula="=R[0]C[-8]-R[1]C[-8]" data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":4859}" style="background-color: #fff2cc; overflow: hidden; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: center; vertical-align: bottom;">4859</td></tr>
<tr style="height: 21px;"><td data-sheets-numberformat="[null,5,"ddd\", \"mmm\" \"d"]" data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":43922}" style="overflow: hidden; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">Wed, Apr 1</td><td data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":2392}" style="overflow: hidden; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">2392</td><td data-sheets-formula="=(R[0]C[-1]-R[1]C[-1])" data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":426}" style="background-color: #fff2cc; font-weight: bold; overflow: hidden; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: center; vertical-align: bottom;">426</td><td data-sheets-formula="=R[0]C[-1]/R[1]C[-2]" data-sheets-numberformat="[null,3,"0%",1]" data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":0.21668362156663276}" style="background-color: #fff2cc; overflow: hidden; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: center; vertical-align: bottom;">22%</td><td data-sheets-formula="=power(R[0]C[-3]/R[7]C[-3],1/7)-1" data-sheets-numberformat="[null,3,"0.0%",1]" data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":0.19484175482800725}" style="background-color: #fff2cc; font-weight: bold; overflow: hidden; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: right; vertical-align: bottom;">19.5%</td><td data-sheets-formula="=R[0]C[-8]-R[1]C[-8]" data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":6245}" style="background-color: #fff2cc; overflow: hidden; padding: 2px 3px 2px 3px; text-align: center; vertical-align: bottom;">6245</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<style type="text/css"><!--td {border: 1px solid #ccc;}br {mso-data-placement:same-cell;}</style> <br />
You can see that it's been basically flat in terms of the number of new cases per day, with the "peak" such as it is on Apr 8th, itself several days later than I would have predicted based on our lockdown date. And recently it hasn't even been declining in percentage terms, let alone absolute, which is terrible.<br />
<br />
Basically, we're looking at a decline here more like they have in Italy than they have in BC (or Australia, or Korea, etc), and that means that (a) it'll take a lot longer to get to a place where we can open up and (b) we'll end with a far higher number of cases.<br />
<br />
Why is our tail longer? I think it's basically two reasons: (1) our testing has been somewhat crappy, so some of the cases we're reporting now actually come from earlier, i.e. our peak is actually larger than it looks (this crappy testing is also evidenced by our fairly high case fatality rate, currently at 4.6%) and (2) our lockdown has sucked, in the first week we didn't properly close most businesses in Ontario, and even now, our social distancing isn't great (I can see how crappy it is in Trinity Bellwoods Park, and also at the local Metro). I think we ARE getting better over time, e.g. with actual proper PPE on the staff at Metro now, and more people taking the distancing seriously, but it's taken way too long to get here, and we're seeing that in an extended flat period in the cases, rather than a decline as we all hoped to see by now. I think we WILL see it start to decline eventually (hopefully in a few more days, once we work through the testing backlog again), but it's clear that we're in for a lot more cases than a quick decline (like happened in BC) would have predicted.<br />
<br />
Anyway, the net-net is, my prediction now is that we're going to need to stay locked down until the end of May, and that we're likely to have 15-20k cases by then. <br />
<br />
Beyond the end of May, a few Reopening thoughts:<br />
<ul>
<li>We're going to need to massive amounts of PPE in order to open up. Especially here in Toronto, I feel like <b>everyone</b> who wants to ride the TTC is going to have to <b>properly </b>wear a mask. Because it's just not possible to socially distance on a bus, streetcar, or subway when it's even half full, let alone at rush hour. So if we're going to go back to even half of the people commuting to work, those people are going to have to wear PPE, there just isn't any way around it. That in turn implies that we CAN'T open up until literally tens of millions of masks are available in Toronto, and obviously that isn't going to be true for a long while... Here it is in the news, just moments ago: <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/15/nyregion/coronavirus-face-masks-andrew-cuomo.html">New York Orders Residents to Wear Masks in Public</a>.</li>
<li>Supporting the above, we have to continue to socially distance, because we're not going to be able to keep the number of cases at zero. We border New York State, the most infected place in the world, and even just essential travel and goods to and from there are going to give us a certain amount of unavoidable exposure to active cases, even assuming that NY gets their own epidemic under control (they did seem to be doing OK, but numbers today had them shooting back up again, so it's a bit hard to tell!).</li>
<li>We're going to have to keep travel bans / border closures in place to lots of parts of the world, and also, make sure that people are not just connecting via some third place in order to hide their origins from places that are still heavily infected. Trudeau announced recently that travelers now need to have a "<a href="https://globalnews.ca/news/6815822/coronavirus-mandatory-quarantine/">credible plan</a>" for how they will self-isolate (rather than just promising that they will do so), I hope this actually gets more strict, for countries of origin that have current epidemics</li>
<li>We also need to really get our shit in order on testing and contract tracing. I feel like I'm actually echoing Doug Ford here, which is creeping me out a bit, but it's true - the <b>foundation</b> of "the dance" is the ability to rapidly identify cases, and isolate all of their recent contacts until such a time as they too can be tested (recent infections don't actually show, you need to wait two-three days before the virus breeds enough to be detectable). <a href="https://www.apple.com/newsroom/2020/04/apple-and-google-partner-on-covid-19-contact-tracing-technology/">Apple and Google partner on COVID-19 contact tracing technology</a> - is actually a privacy respecting way to do it, but I'm hugely skeptical that it'll get enough adoption to actually be useful. I think we're going to have to rely on old-fashioned contact tracing via interviews and sheer man-power. I read that China built up 1800 teams of 5 people each to do contact tracing in Wuhan - we won't need that many once we've got this under control, but I still think Ontario as a whole will need scores of such teams for the foreseeable future, and it'll be similar in all provinces. This is perhaps a job for the Canadian Military? It's gonna require some dedication (read: monotony, doing the same thing over and over), and considerable attention to detail, and some authority ("please tell me everything about your life for the last week, sir"), so I think military personnel are pretty well suited to it.</li>
<li>Libraries and Museums, e.g. the science centre, are probably going to have to really restrict capacities. Those kinds of "crossing grounds" where lots of people who would otherwise never interact potentially spend hours in each others presence are the worst kind of super spreader things, other than large scale events like festivals. Perhaps they will even have to stay closed, but I hope it's workable to open them with very low capacity limits, i.e. literally a guard at the door who makes sure that there are no more than X people inside, where X is probably 1/20th or less of the usual fire capacity. It'll give those places a totally different kind of vibe too, and it's not clear that it'd even be economic for e.g. the ROM to be open. With ticket sales forced to be that low, it is worth having the staff keep the place open? So much will have to be figured out.</li>
<li>On a sort of similar front, I've been thinking about elevators. It's clearly a bad situation, especially in a lot of the new condo buildings, where I know that rush hour often sees the elevators (and lobbies) be worse than the subways in terms of crowding. Is even good PPE sufficient in such a confined, stagnant air situation? Maybe we require lots of people to climb stairs? That's obviously not super practical above about 20 stories, but SOMETHING needs to be done. Heck it's probably bad even now, with lots of people staying home (i.e. do you get in an elevator if there is already another person in it?), but it'll be just impossible once we open up... I'm glad to live in a house in a fairy low density (for downtown Toronto) area, that's for sure.</li>
<li>Plus all the things I <a href="http://www.digitalcrusader.ca/2020/03/ontario-coronavirus-futures.html">mentioned in the last post</a> - no large gatherings, restrictions on density at restaurants, continued working from home by whoever can do so, special measures at schools and other dense places.</li>
<li>All these types of restrictions will hopefully be able to be released slowly, as the number of new cases, and the danger from travelers, etc, gets lower over time. But that's ONLY true if we avoid another epidemic. If cases go up again, and reach another epidemic, we'll have to do this whole thing all over again, and obviously nobody wants that... that's the number one reason why we can't open up anytime soon. We need to start from a super low number (ideally zero, but that's not practical), so that we have good odds of just keeping it down using testing and contact tracing/isolation, rather than doing this all again in Aug/Sept/etc...</li>
</ul>
Eric Boydhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16717392630309707057noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8321448421187115364.post-48669750919599950682020-04-15T15:32:00.000-07:002020-04-15T15:32:05.608-07:00Paintings on Canvas: Outbreak & The Return<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-MVGSYY0qyiA/XpeIuccITVI/AAAAAAAABTg/B-4bmqjeIecECzJTjRdvQNgSTcwjrcX0QCNcBGAsYHQ/s1600/IMG_6726.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1600" data-original-width="1200" height="320" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-MVGSYY0qyiA/XpeIuccITVI/AAAAAAAABTg/B-4bmqjeIecECzJTjRdvQNgSTcwjrcX0QCNcBGAsYHQ/s320/IMG_6726.JPG" width="240" /></a></div>
After my <a href="http://www.digitalcrusader.ca/2020/03/painting-giant-robots.html">last</a> <a href="http://www.digitalcrusader.ca/2020/03/new-quarantine-hobby-painting.html">two</a> attempts, I decided that I've become skilled enough to stop painting on art paper, and move to actual canvas. I have a total of six canvasses (and plan to give at least one to a housemate too), so these things are precious! I've completed two, and I have plans now for a third. Click images for a larger version.<br />
<br />
First painting: I call it "Outbreak", it's the planet Earth, with a coronavirus infection! My layering idea (paint the background first, etc) worked really well here. Overall I'm super happy with the painting, it totally conveys the sort of emotional tone that I was going for, and my artistic choices (making the landmasses bigger than they really are, making a crescent moon even though that's not physically possible if the Earth is fully illuminated) I think worked well.<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-re1a4S_09jI/XpeJlcaU_XI/AAAAAAAABTo/OZHbBXlf1AoJnInfcblgBS1RgR1SnIxdwCNcBGAsYHQ/s1600/IMG_6741.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1200" data-original-width="1600" height="240" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-re1a4S_09jI/XpeJlcaU_XI/AAAAAAAABTo/OZHbBXlf1AoJnInfcblgBS1RgR1SnIxdwCNcBGAsYHQ/s320/IMG_6741.JPG" width="320" /></a></div>
Second painting: I called it "The Return", it's the famous dual-booster landing from the first <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Falcon_Heavy">SpaceX Falcon Heavy</a> Launch: Feb 6th, 2018. I'm super happy with how well the trees in the foreground worked, and the flames (which I was super worried about!), but the boosters themselves are a bit underwhelming. The framing is correct though - I'm totally glad that I added way more sky than the source image had, in order to get the 'rule of thirds' working. Probably the most disappointing bit of the painting though is the water; I actually repainted the entire water after the first very bad take, but even this second attempt is still not very good. All the "texture" waves that I tried to add really can't be seen, and it ends up looking more like a wall of blue than like the ocean. But I decided not to do a third attempt on the same canvas, it's clear to me that I don't know how to make it look like an actual ocean yet, so probably need to do a study or something. Anyway, overall, I think this one was decent, but it lacks the punch of the first painting, that's for sure.<br />
<br />
Now working on a third canvas painting, which will feature Pixar's "WALL-E" robot! And special bokeh background.Eric Boydhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16717392630309707057noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8321448421187115364.post-33696241241009838912020-04-05T12:52:00.000-07:002020-04-05T13:54:37.082-07:00Coronavirus Long Term Thoughts<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-47RHeU6Wsks/Xoo1AqcVrPI/AAAAAAAABSw/RqsHORsJxtYdOKM871OIFmbkN9REostMQCNcBGAsYHQ/s1600/StayTheFkAtHome.jpeg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1000" data-original-width="1600" height="200" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-47RHeU6Wsks/Xoo1AqcVrPI/AAAAAAAABSw/RqsHORsJxtYdOKM871OIFmbkN9REostMQCNcBGAsYHQ/s320/StayTheFkAtHome.jpeg" width="320" /></a></div>
I'll get to the long term thoughts, a few brief updates and interesting data things first:<br />
<br />
Updates) <a href="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1uZld2djGYL-ZN_Lmq8KtewOHfjqoReRHgp-MY3eKOqs/edit#gid=0">Ontario numbers</a> have been higher than I was hoping they would be, so I'm revising my estimate upwards again from 3-5k to 8-12k. In this wave, i.e. till about June 1st. The numbers in the last two days have been encouraging in terms of being flat in number of new cases - hopefully this shows that our measures are working, and we can now expect a few more days of flat before we start to see a slow decline. Obviously if they don't stay flat, my projection above is once again garbage. Ontario itself <a href="https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/6824779-COVID-19-Technical-Briefing-Friday-April-4-2020.html#document/p1">released models</a>, which was super fascinating. Watch the <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nHK01MiTy54&feature=youtu.be">April 3rd news conference</a>. I agree with almost everything that was said, and I applaud Ontario for being brave enough to release the "sobering" projections. It's especially great to hear that their prediction show us having enough surge capacity in the health care system to meet the expected number of ICU/ventilators needed. The only thing I really don't understand is the projection for 3000-12000 deaths in the next 18 months (slide 13). They say they are hoping to keep the current wave to 200-1600 deaths (slide 12) depending on new measures we take soon. So obviously they feel that there will be somewhere between 1400-11400 deaths AFTER this first wave, clearly implying that they expect at least one more wave which is more serious / less contained than this wave. But surely that is preventable now? Are they instead thinking there will be a slow but steady level of infection which results in steady deaths? I ran some numbers for that, and it's 5+/day for the 18 months, which implies at least 200 new infections every day over that period - at that level we need to lockdown, so I don't understand how we can possibly get to that 3k-12k number. My suspicion is that it's designed mostly to make us know the importance of obeying all these measures, which IS a good reason. We all do need to be scared, and we all do need to <a href="https://medium.com/@kailacolbin/stay-the-f-k-at-home-c734c31f3ee0">stay the fuck at home</a> (a bedtime story for adults, cover image shown above). Maybe I'm missing some third pathway though, where we can have that many deaths without either another epidemic or a steady level of infection which I think would lead immediately to an epidemic?<br />
<br />
Data Things) Some cool links: <a href="https://meetglimpse.com/covid19/">Covid-19 Consumer Impact Tracker</a> shows a lot of interesting charts about what's hot (DIY haircut up 221%) and what not (heels down 35%). Google released some fascinating <a href="https://www.google.com/covid19/mobility/">COVID-19 Community Mobility Reports</a> where you can see how much travel behavior has changed in pretty much all countries of the world (with the curious exception of China!). Ontario is much less locked down than e.g. Italy, but more so than California, and at about the same levels as B.C., which is several days ahead of us and clearly showing that they have it under control now, so that's quite heartening. The <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_South_Korea">wikipedia entry for 2020 coronavirus pandemic in South Korea</a> is also amazing, so much detail and charts. That's case tracking done right.<br />
<br />
Economics & Long Term Thoughts) Some links to good reading: <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/26/life-after-coronavirus-pandemic-change-world">Cities after coronavirus: how Covid-19 could radically alter urban life</a>. <a href="https://www.ecfr.eu/article/commentary_the_coronavirus_a_geopolitical_earthquake">The coronavirus: A geopolitical earthquake</a>. <a href="https://quillette.com/2020/03/28/social-distancing-during-the-black-death/">Social Distancing During the Black Death</a>. <a href="https://electricliterature.com/ted-chiang-explains-the-disaster-novel-we-all-suddenly-live-in/">Ted Chiang Explains the Disaster Novel We All Suddenly Live In</a>.<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/mar/18/the-covid-19-crisis-is-a-chance-to-do-capitalism-differently"> The Covid-19 crisis is a chance to do capitalism differently</a>. Obviously there are TONS of this kind of story out there, and I've read at least four for every one that I linked here. I mostly haven't linked all the ones talking about V vs U shaped recoveries, etc.<br />
<br />
I guess the first thing that I'd like to say is that this event is of massive historical significance. It's going to leave wounds, and cause changes, to a much greater degree than anything in recent decades - I think it'll end up being at least as significant globally as World War II, and possibly even more so. WWII really reset how generations of people thought about how we should structure society, and ushered in things like the welfare state, the Marshall Plan, and of course, the United Nations. It'd be very surprising to me if long term, this COVID-19 crisis doesn't create similar levels of geopolitical change. Here's a few obvious changes for the first decade, though of course, caveat emptor, these are all my opinions:<br />
<ul>
<li>Permanent reduction in global travel, both for business and for pleasure. It's going to be harder to travel, and people will be less inclined to do it. There will be much more acceptance and usage of alternative to travel, such as virtual meetings, video conferencing, and eventually, virtual reality/virtual worlds, etc. Concretely, here's a prediction for you: many airlines are going to go out of business, and all bookings for new-build airplanes that can be cancelled, will be. The world has more airplanes NOW than it's going to be using 10 years from now. Probably the same is true for container ships, but I'm less confident of that.</li>
<li>The USA's status as global superpower that everyone looks to for help is over, completely done, stick a fork in it. They've done exactly zero except insult people during this crisis (see <a href="https://www.huffingtonpost.ca/entry/coronavirus-us-canada-tweets_ca_5e890603c5b6e7d76c65172c">recent spat with Canada over shipments of PPE</a>). China has been trying to step into that superpower role, but it hasn't been working, because people rightly perceive that China CAUSED this mess, with their early bungling of the virus. And they are widely perceived to be lying about it even now. All countries are going to become more nationalistic, more focused on making sure they are safe and self-sufficient. So I think the most probable outcome is that we enter a multi-polar world, similar to the early years of colonialism, where many world powers engage in a lot of mercantilism. Similar to that era, there are also clearly going to be a lot of large corporate entities as well; they were called Chartered Companies then, what we call them now is multinational companies. I'm thinking here of things like Google, Alibaba, Huawei, Amazon, etc. It'll be interesting to see if the EU, India or Africa will be able to establish some of these giants themselves over the next decade or two. At any rate, it's a world that FEELS extremely different to the globalized world that we've been experiencing for the last 30+ years. </li>
<li>Optimistically: this is going to have a good long term impact on our efforts to fight climate change. Obviously emissions will be down this year for sure (shutdown economies), and likely by a smaller amount permanently as well (due to e.g. increases in working from home, decreases in long distance travel). But in addition, I'm hoping that this fight has given people are real feeling for what LAG means when you're talking about a problem which is bad, but without immediate effect. Climate change is LIKE coronavirus: the actions we all take now result in bad consequences later, it's just that the later is years instead of weeks. That will be easier to explain to people, and I think people will understand how "we're all in this together" as well. Hopefully many places will also use stimulus funds to support the renewable economy, which should hasten it by some years. We're critically late already on the climate change front, so the boost from these considerations is actually quite welcome, possibly the largest silver lining in this dreadful cloud.</li>
<li>Optimistically: as with that essay above, a chance to change the way capitalism works. In the USA, one can hope that they finally see the light about the problems with their health-care system, and the way they treat low-wage employees and contractors. In the rest of the west, a chance to build more resiliency and robustness into the system, i.e. increase inventories, decrease supply chain distances, make employment systems more fair, build a sustainable, eco-friendly economy. For Canada in particular, the oil price shock (and permanently reduced demand for oil) will hopefully be the last nail in the coffin of the crazy bad oil economy in the prairies. Let's shut all that shit down for good, and move to making the future, like wind turbines, solar panels, and batteries. For Asia and Africa, a tremendous opportunity to rise to global significance - but really they have already been playing that card, so they just need to keep on keeping on. Structurally, I don't know what the 21st century equivalents to unions and the welfare state are, but we've got a chance now to invent them, so let's get cracking on that, or the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Shock_Doctrine">disaster capitalism</a> oligarchs will crack it in the wrong way... let's not need a coronavirus 2 (like WWII) in order to get it right this time, let's just do this once!</li>
<li>That essay about social distancing during the black death had a really interesting point about vacation homes and remote villas for the rich. If you can't travel the world anymore, do the wealthy and middle class instead go in for super luxurious vacation homes a few hours outside of the cities they live in? If so, that sure seems a lot like Ontario, where so many people have cottages up north... does this change the way that the travel/hospitality/entertainment industry operates, such that cottage counties with massive entertainment resorts open up everywhere? Is it sort of like the preppers bunkers, but for everyone, and nice to live in? Or is it more like Blue Mountain, with some huge centralized expensive entertainments? There are obviously trillions to be made here if you can figure out the right answer (in detail) and sell it to people. But I guess my big take away here is: don't sell your cottage to cover your short-term cash flow problems, it's going to be worth a lot more 5 years from now.</li>
<li>In terms of stock market, I suspect we're not at the bottom yet, i.e. this little recent rise is just the calm before another storm. When the extent of the damage to small and medium business becomes apparent, and the employment numbers are out, and the death of the airlines & hotels becomes obvious (we can't rescue them all, and shouldn't), I think we'll see big drops again - we're down 27% so far, and I expect to see at least another 10%. I also think it's going to be more like a U or even L than like a V, i.e. this is going to take awhile to recover from. Partly it's the shear number of companies that have long-term problems that will keep the stock market recovery from happening. Airlines, industrials (e.g. car companies), utilities & mining, any ad-supported companies, hotels, oil companies, even things like Disney (which will have to keep parks closed for likely most of 2020!), etc, will all stay down because their revenues (and thus profits) will stay down, for years. Frankly the only reason it won't be the great depression is because we're so much better at macroeconomics than we used to be (<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/We_are_all_Keynesians_now">we are all Keynesians now</a>, but also, we believe in monetary stimulus too!). But it's going to be at least as bad as the great recession. That said, I'm STILL holding my stock market index fund, because I still believe in the long term this kind of thing represents a buying opportunity and only a temporary setback. It's not the end of the world, not even the end of the financial world... capitalism is the most robust system humanity has ever invented, it thrives in times of crisis, and I expect it to continue to do so. The trick is to manage the beast so that we all benefit.</li>
<li>Super Optimistically (this one actually seems not very likely to me): Americans will wake up to the importance of good governance, and stop electing people who want to destroy the government. It should be very obvious now that having a good government, which is competent, listens to experts, and that you trust is very important. Much more important than e.g. your emotional rapport with the candidate. These are life and death matters, always have been, and now that truth has been made obvious to people. If Trump had taken COVID-19 seriously, and acted competently, the way that everyone knows Obama and his administration would have, probably the USA would have ended with 10% or less of the deaths, i.e. literally tens of thousands of Americans would have been saved. I honestly hope that Trump himself sobers up a bit and issues an apology to the USA, they deserve one, and I'd like to believe that even Trump is capable of admitting his mistakes. Sheerest optimism, obviously, but hey, a man can dream...</li>
</ul>
Eric Boydhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16717392630309707057noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8321448421187115364.post-33594139975620899032020-03-30T18:39:00.000-07:002020-03-30T18:39:01.868-07:00Ontario Coronavirus Futures<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-fsRkbDIHWzg/XoKWYFEmDiI/AAAAAAAABSM/d2Ha0L6SLEU160PMkJlRKZIQrVaH6j_5ACNcBGAsYHQ/s1600/CanadaCovid.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="705" data-original-width="1113" height="202" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-fsRkbDIHWzg/XoKWYFEmDiI/AAAAAAAABSM/d2Ha0L6SLEU160PMkJlRKZIQrVaH6j_5ACNcBGAsYHQ/s320/CanadaCovid.png" width="320" /></a></div>
So lots has happened since I last wrote about the situation 5 days ago. Ontario has managed to ramp testing up to ~6000/day (from ~2000/day), and the backlog of testing has basically been eliminated. Presumably we are now able to start testing some of those people who were not being tested before because their test results wouldn't change the actions we take, e.g. returning travelers (I've personally heard reports that such people were not being tested). I'm still keeping track of <a href="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1uZld2djGYL-ZN_Lmq8KtewOHfjqoReRHgp-MY3eKOqs/edit#gid=0">Ontario, Toronto, Canada, California and New York</a> in a spreadsheet. Pictured is the super fancy new interactive map of Canada that's on the <a href="https://www.canada.ca/en/public-health/services/diseases/2019-novel-coronavirus-infection.html">Canada covid</a> page as of two days ago, you can actually "play" it to see cases rise over time, which is pretty cool.<br />
<br />
Today's disturbing Ontario numbers - 380 new cases - have to be understood in the 'more testing' context, obviously wider testing is going to uncover newer/more cases. What's ALARMING about the number isn't so much the size, as the fact that the test positive rate was so high: 5.84% versus a previous level of around 4%. Obviously the population being newly tested is somehow higher risk than the populations we've been testing to date, which I think does make a little bit of sense for returning travelers who were expressing symptoms. In fact it's kind of surprisingly those wouldn't be even higher. But that's just one possible group of people who might be getting tested now, and honestly, all of this is mere speculation. The reality is that increased testing is going to show increased cases, and this is likely to continue until nearly all symptomatic, historical (meaning: we were alerted to them, but didn't do a test because they were scarce) cases are confirmed. I estimate that'll take many days to work through those kind of cases, so I expect to see Ontario numbers remain at this elevated level for awhile, perhaps a week, plus or minus a week? So hard to know, it sucks that Ontario has never reported presumptive positives / probable cases.<br />
<br />
Once we've worked though that backlog of untested cases, presumably we'll get back to data were we can try to understand the continuing community transmission again. I imagine Ontario Public Health itself is tracking community spread vs close contact vs travel related cases, but they are no longer making that info public (and even before today's change in their reporting, we'd only get that data for about half of cases). In the mean time it's going to be quite difficult for us to tell if Ontario's shutdown measures are actually working - we were expecting that this week the percentage growth numbers would finally start trending down, but that will now be masked by the testing boost, so without seeing the breakout, it's going to be hard to tell.<br />
<br />
Anyway, I've also been reading a lot more about what the future will be like, and I found this amazing essay on Medium: <a href="https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-the-hammer-and-the-dance-be9337092b56">Coronavirus: the hammer and the dance</a>, which goes into huge amounts of detail about why we're suppressing rather than just distancing or doing nothing. Long abouts the 3/4 mark, it actually gets into "the dance", which is the phase where we open back up, but selectively, letting some kinds of activities happen, doing a lot testing and isolating, and generally trying to keep R0 less than 1. Because we have to keep it contained, sub exponential, since hospitals cannot hope to treat epidemics - even the small scale epidemic we're facing now is going to be a considerable challenge for the health care system, though I continue to predict that we'll be under the capacity here, do to our fairly quick action. Anyway, please go read the essay in full, I'll wait, I promise it's worth it.<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-f42jbSUewMI/XoKQbUBZYAI/AAAAAAAABRs/7D9YOfrxbu0YQYXJhEbJ7k51lykmbRjKgCNcBGAsYHQ/s1600/HammerAndDance_Chart16.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="852" data-original-width="1600" height="170" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-f42jbSUewMI/XoKQbUBZYAI/AAAAAAAABRs/7D9YOfrxbu0YQYXJhEbJ7k51lykmbRjKgCNcBGAsYHQ/s320/HammerAndDance_Chart16.png" width="320" /></a></div>
Probably the most interesting thing in the whole essay is Chart 16 (click on it here for a bigger version), which is FAKE, i.e. those numbers are all made up as an illustrative example. But we can hope eventually to have real numbers for it, and to use something like that to decide what's possible to open up and what's not once we're in the dance phase.<br />
<br />
Summing up my thoughts for Ontario Coronavirus Futures:<br />
<ul>
<li>I'm revising my estimate for total cases in this hammer period (i.e. through the middle of May or so, see point below) up to 3-5k. With a small chance that numbers over the next week cause that estimate to double or triple again, of course. It's already about double what I was projecting we'd end at in previous posts, so it's quite likely that I'm *still* being unreasonably optimistic...</li>
<li>We'll be in the hammer/shutdown for a total of 8 +/- 2 weeks, and we're basically at the end of Week 2 now. So 6 more weeks, though May 11th, at least. We'd get out early only if our numbers are smaller than above, AND public health decides that we're going to be *really good* at the dance, which doesn't seem very likely to me. Longer seems more plausible, if the numbers are bigger or we're still very uncertain about what is effective.</li>
<li>I expect that Ontario will decide that restarting school when we open is both too risky and not worth it, given that only about 1 month remains anyway, so school is likely to remain cancelled. Presumably there are already a lot of educators and school boards that are talking about what they will do about student grades for the semester, etc. Lots of places are talking about <a href="https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2020-03-27/grades-vs-pass-fail-colleges-grapple-with-student-demands-to-change-grading-during-coronavirus">having only a pass/fail</a> for the term. Exams themselves might be possible somehow, it wouldn't surprise me to see them try to stage some at schools, with lowered density / increased duration of examination period. On a similar note, I expect that large day cares will continue to not be allowed, but smaller ones might be able to open back up.</li>
<li>Large gatherings are almost certainly still not going to be allowed - no groups over N people. The only real question is what N will be. I expect we'll have to play with it. It would really surprise me if N was as big as 100, I think 20-50 is much more reasonable. So that still means: nearly all festivals, conferences, sports events, clubs, churches, etc will remain cancelled. In particular, for my life, it seems incredibly unlikely to me that we'll be allowed or able to do <a href="https://makerfestival.ca/">Maker Festival</a> in 2020. Even the hacklab open house (20-40 people on a typical night, but not all at once) seems a bit sketchy.</li>
<li>I'm pretty optimistic that cafes, restaurants and bars will be allowed to open, with some anti-crowding/sanitation measures, i.e. greatly reduced capacities, maybe half the tables are not allowed to be used in order to space out customers, and probably the serving staff will have to wear masks or face shields, really stepped up sanitation measures (doors etc wiped down once+ an hour), etc. It'll still be great to have even that available again though, in terms of us getting back to feeling normal. I certainly miss my social life a lot.</li>
<li>There will continue to be travel/border restrictions, but more importantly, there will be mandatory, managed 14-day isolation system in place for arriving travelers, just like they are doing now in parts of Asia. The government will literally put arrivals up in a hotel for 14 days, during which time they'll see almost no-one. This treatment MIGHT be reserved only for travelers from places that still have outbreaks, but it might just be used for everyone too, it sort of depends on how much travel is actually happening, and on our perceived level of risk. It only takes one infected, irresponsible traveler to doom us to lockdown, if they don't get with all of these measures (because they are not educated the way we will be).</li>
<li>Most office work will resume, though working at home will still be recommended where possible, with the goal to keep offices half empty for more social distancing. In fact in general people will still be expected to social distance in public, so that little "cross the street dance" we're doing when we're walking around can be expected to continue. One way I can imagine this settling out on bigger streets is that one side walks one way, while the other goes the other way, and like when you're driving, you "keep your safe distance" behind the previous person. Currently things are a lot more chaotic than that, but I imagine we'll have it figured out long before we open back up...</li>
<li>We're almost certain to have some local flareups, which will result
in travel bans to/from that area while it's locked down in a new hammer
cycle. Hopefully local hammers are sufficient; the economic costs of a province wide lockdown is just too huge. </li>
<li>In the fall, I expect Ontario WILL try to restart schools in some manner, with elaborate plans for sanitation, social distancing, etc. They'll have months to figure it out, so hopefully it'll be well communicated, with high compliance, and actually work. Also hopefully by that time, most areas in Ontario won't have had an actual case in months, so the objective risk will actually be very small.</li>
<li>This is also hopefully true for day cares, churches, medium size gatherings (25-200 people), etc - at some point, with new measures in place, these kinds of things should be allowable again.</li>
</ul>
So overall that's a kind of depressing "new reality" that we'll be living in, of uncertain duration, but it's hard to imagine how it could be any different, short of some kind of miracle cure or something.<br />
<ul>
</ul>
Eric Boydhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16717392630309707057noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8321448421187115364.post-46517041096277935362020-03-28T15:17:00.002-07:002020-03-28T15:17:26.021-07:00Painting Giant Robots<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-MKswLzDrvgg/Xn_L_sctHfI/AAAAAAAABQ8/BFv38zCi7FIN3QM24Z3xfKbiRMqp1PZvACNcBGAsYHQ/s1600/IMG_6717.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1600" data-original-width="1200" height="320" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-MKswLzDrvgg/Xn_L_sctHfI/AAAAAAAABQ8/BFv38zCi7FIN3QM24Z3xfKbiRMqp1PZvACNcBGAsYHQ/s320/IMG_6717.JPG" width="240" /></a></div>
For my second painting I picked a much more ambitious image, one of the giant robots from Pacific Rim. I'm happy with the way it turned out, and I also learned a great deal making this one too. I cal it "Strider Alpha"; the actual robot is apparently called Strider Zeta (I don't remember the movie well enough to recognize it at all). Some thoughts:<br />
<br />
1) Accurately sketching the outlines and details is super important for these more complex images. I really only did a base outline of the robot, which was great, but it resulted in all kinds of things not being proper in the end, like the boat (which I didn't sketch at all and so it's totally improvised), the kneecaps, the chest details, etc. For future paintings with this level of detail I really need to properly sketch everything before I get started, and then figure out how to preserve those outlines etc as I move forward with paint coverage.<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-jTHqiX_-lQY/Xn_MF6n7v5I/AAAAAAAABRA/DkpsNnr8Ue85ntPfswcOJ3lrRxXFAy2ZQCNcBGAsYHQ/s1600/IMG_6712.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1600" data-original-width="1200" height="320" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-jTHqiX_-lQY/Xn_MF6n7v5I/AAAAAAAABRA/DkpsNnr8Ue85ntPfswcOJ3lrRxXFAy2ZQCNcBGAsYHQ/s320/IMG_6712.JPG" width="240" /></a></div>
2) Blocking out colors actually works pretty well. Obviously it doesn't achieve the blending of colors of the original image, but I feel like it still conveys the look of the robot well, so I'm pretty happy with my decision to block rather than even attempt color blending. I do plan to try blending on some future painting though, it might be really awesome too.<br />
<br />
3) It IS possible to paint white over a "mistake" and then repaint it; I did this both for the boat and for the shield on the right (robots left arm), to varying degrees of success. Hardest part is color matching the stuff around it when you repaint it back in, if the outline is shifting position. So that's a great trick to have available.<br />
<br />
4) It IS possible to paint finer levels of detail, especially nice edges, if you use a brush which comes to a point and you're willing to spend the time. Still not possible to make actually small things, but sharp edges and fine lines are possible for sure.<br />
<br />
5) Layering works awesome. Start with background, then color block, then add details, etc. A little bit of forethought can really make it easy to assemble things correctly.<br />
<br />
6) Having the painting up at the right height, and having a nice big palette for mixing colors, which is also held at the right height, and having the image right there too, makes a huge positive difference in the actual experience of painting. That said, the clamps and magnets holding the paper in place are not great, (a) they actually cover up bits of the painting, which is annoying when making the background and (b) it's quite useful to be able to rotate the painting, since it turns out that I'm WAY better at edges when they are right edges than when they are left (presumably for a right hander it'd be the other way around). For my next painting I'm working on a canvas instead of clamped paper, so already exploiting this observation, and don't need any clamps or anything to hold it in place.<br />
<br />
Anyway this is totally lots of fun and continues to be a great escape in these long social distancing days at home.Eric Boydhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16717392630309707057noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8321448421187115364.post-80597073947065587382020-03-25T09:41:00.000-07:002020-03-25T09:41:46.565-07:00Coronavirus Resources & Community Make<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-yXynAydJAuM/XnuHw0FYwKI/AAAAAAAABQU/lRt3PwYzhZQtEZ3sexdDaArB1yIAPAwfQCNcBGAsYHQ/s1600/community-make-5-uai-1032x580.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="580" data-original-width="1032" height="179" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-yXynAydJAuM/XnuHw0FYwKI/AAAAAAAABQU/lRt3PwYzhZQtEZ3sexdDaArB1yIAPAwfQCNcBGAsYHQ/s320/community-make-5-uai-1032x580.png" width="320" /></a></div>
I've been personally involved in <a href="http://communitymake.ca/">Community Make</a>, our idea is to basically help coordinate independent makers and small business which have e.g. 3d printers or sewing machines in order to help with supplies (masks, etc) for the coronavirus epidemic here in Ontario. Turns out the big need is for face shields - which are more protective than facemasks, plus easier to make & use properly, as well as being easier to reuse safely. So that's been super interesting and has kept me busy several hours of every day. If you've got a 3d printer, laser cutter, or sewing machine, we'd like to hear from you.<br />
<br />
Lots of other groups are organizing in Ontario/Toronto as well. The most awesome resource I've found is this: <a href="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/18IAn2bwZeYj2Oy9TdGCO8wB3w3lv3wnLMpyzEYFfWDI"><span class="docs-title-input-label-inner" id="docs-title-input-label-inner">COVID Resources (Toronto mostly)</span></a>, it's a spreadsheet with links to a lot of different kinds of info, such as how to help (volunteer, etc), support services (e.g. government and not-for-profit groups), mental-health info, etc. It links to this <a href="https://docs.google.com/document/d/1WmXxTzmnxi7BCAvIwXYbzgHaOQQ2_E6IwRKGA1bo-a0">more detailed breakout of Impacts and Supports</a> for helping specific types of people, etc.<br />
<span class="docs-title-input-label-inner" id="docs-title-input-label-inner"><br /></span>
<a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-L8FgEoYegZQ/XnuHn6W4AII/AAAAAAAABQQ/9go47E6BpZknfz2tYOHP_MY1q8xq66rVQCNcBGAsYHQ/s1600/1*3WsTH5PZ03mb2fsAiNxD3w.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="950" data-original-width="1572" height="193" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-L8FgEoYegZQ/XnuHn6W4AII/AAAAAAAABQQ/9go47E6BpZknfz2tYOHP_MY1q8xq66rVQCNcBGAsYHQ/s320/1*3WsTH5PZ03mb2fsAiNxD3w.png" width="320" /></a><span class="docs-title-input-label-inner" id="docs-title-input-label-inner">Here's an <a href="https://medium.com/@raif/daily-insights-on-covid-19-march-23-18fc147f4918">amazing log-plot chart</a> comparing countries response to each other, based on day-1 = when each country had 150 cases. The USA looks to be heading to real disaster (mostly because of the super poor behavior in New York, which is almost half of all US cases now). Log-plots are super important because they let you see the growth rate in constant terms - basically the slope of the line in the log plot tells you about the growth rate. You need to see the slope flattening to zero as quickly as possible. You can also get up-to-date log-plots for the Canadian provinces and US states individually here: <a href="https://coronavirus.1point3acres.com/">1point3acres COVID-19 in US and Canada</a>. </span><br />
<span class="docs-title-input-label-inner" id="docs-title-input-label-inner"><br /></span>
<span class="docs-title-input-label-inner" id="docs-title-input-label-inner">The big boys are also getting into emergency manufacturing: <a href="https://techcrunch.com/2020/03/24/ford-and-3m-ge-and-the-uaw-to-build-respirators-ventilators-and-faceshields-for-coronavirus-fight/">Ford, 3M, GE and the UAW to build respirators, ventilators and face shields for coronavirus fight</a>, which is great news. Wish it had happened 2 weeks ago, of course, given the extent of the problem in the USA, but hey, better late than never!</span><br />
<span class="docs-title-input-label-inner" id="docs-title-input-label-inner"><br /></span>
<span class="docs-title-input-label-inner" id="docs-title-input-label-inner">Also in good news, there are tons and tons of clinical trials that are starting for treatments and for vaccines. The <a href="https://milkeninstitute.org/covid-19-tracker">Milken Institute has a great tracker</a> for all of them, it currently lists 39 vaccines and 65 treatments, and if you want details there is a PDF about all of them updated daily. The hydroxychloroquine treatment is listed under "other" for it's mechanism, and every treatment and vaccine has links to Sources for more info. I'm just not biomed enough to be able to actually parse most of that stuff, but it's super cool to see that thousands of scientists are working hard.</span><br />
<span class="docs-title-input-label-inner" id="docs-title-input-label-inner"><br /></span>
<span class="docs-title-input-label-inner" id="docs-title-input-label-inner">As a final note, <a href="https://www.princegeorgecitizen.com/china-to-lift-lockdown-in-most-of-virus-hit-hubei-province-1.24104526">most locked-down Chinese cities opened today</a>, <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Hubei_lockdowns">two months and a day after they locked down</a>. Wuhan itself they plan to keep on lockdown till at least April 8th. The big question is whether this is too soon, and they will start to see rising numbers and community transmission again, and thus have to lockdown all over again - a problem which has already occurred to some extent in Hong Kong and South Korea. It's great to have China running that experiment now, we can basically keep an eye on them to judge our own future response. Realistically the lock-down they did in China is far harsher than our own has been to date (or realistically ever could be), and so we can expect our lock-down to need to last longer. So: at least 10 weeks, maybe more, it will depend a lot on our collective behavior, our ability to ramp up testing, and of course our actual case counts. U</span><span class="docs-title-input-label-inner" id="docs-title-input-label-inner"><span class="docs-title-input-label-inner" id="docs-title-input-label-inner">nless new tools or treatments can somehow make a new strategy possible - wildcard, who knows. Anyway, I guess my <a href="http://www.digitalcrusader.ca/2020/03/coronavirus-tracking-realistic-futures.html">realistic scenario</a> from a couple of days ago may be quite optimistic... I think maybe I'll make a more pessimistic timeline prediction for my next post, with some economic thoughts thrown in as well.</span></span>Eric Boydhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16717392630309707057noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8321448421187115364.post-34522969050756253222020-03-22T07:29:00.001-07:002020-03-22T17:38:43.748-07:00Coronavirus: Tracking & Realistic FuturesThere are a number of awesome tracking websites springing up.<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-wBGdzGuI8Co/Xndpt3zEvNI/AAAAAAAABP0/_zpkAumT8fITQt7aBFoPQ-_Fj_FxkfiAACNcBGAsYHQ/s1600/ViralComparison.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="432" data-original-width="509" height="271" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-wBGdzGuI8Co/Xndpt3zEvNI/AAAAAAAABP0/_zpkAumT8fITQt7aBFoPQ-_Fj_FxkfiAACNcBGAsYHQ/s320/ViralComparison.png" width="320" /></a></div>
USA: <a href="https://www.blogger.com/null" ref="https://covidtracking.com/data/">COVID Tracking Project</a>, has data from all the states apparently 57 now, so must include the districts, etc). They are taking screenshots of their data sources (since many, like Toronto and Ontario, don't bother to show a history themselves), and actually rate the data quality, which is cool. Data only though - no chart or graphs.<br />
USA & Canada: <a href="https://coronavirus.1point3acres.com/">COVID-19 in US and Canada</a>, they have decent charting, and if you scroll down to the middle section (about 1/2 to 3/4 of the way right now) there are several pretty awesome data animation widgets/infographics, which are really cool.<br />
Why You Must Act Now: <a href="https://covidactnow.org/">COVID Act Now</a>, generates predicted hospitalization case loads given four different scenarios: no action; social distancing, shelter in place, wuhan-style lockdown. I have no idea how accurate their models are (in fact it's probably hard to know or even measure how effective "social distancing" really is), but it's super scary that they show social distancing as basically only delaying the overload of hospitals by a month or so. Presumably Ontario/Toronto are more optimistic about the effectiveness of social-distancing, otherwise we'd be implementing more harsh control measures...<br />
<br />
Two days ago I gave an <a href="http://www.digitalcrusader.ca/2020/03/coronavirus-ontariotoronto-update.html">optimistic future vision for Ontario</a>. Today I want to lay out a more middle-of-the-road type prediction.<br />
<br />
First a few bits of news. <a href="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1uZld2djGYL-ZN_Lmq8KtewOHfjqoReRHgp-MY3eKOqs/edit#gid=0">Tracking Spreadsheet for Ontario/Toronto</a>. Ontario's new cases March 19/20/21: 44, 50, 69, total now 377. Toronto: 18/33/32, total now 193. Ontario increasingly has a massive testing backlog (meaning: samples which have been taken from patients, but are waiting to actually go through test procedures to get a results. The backlog is 7239, and daily test quantity is typically about 1-2k, so we have at least a 3 day backlog now. There are conflicting reports about whether testing will increase or decrease over the next week or so - some say we're having serious shortages of reagents and staff fatigue, while others claim we have new labs ramping up and will get to 5000 test/day soon. Apparently the source of a lot of those backlogged tests is returning travelers, which is terrifying to contemplate - imagine returning to Ontario, being told to self-isolate, but actually not knowing for sure if you have it. Do you take it seriously? Is there even any food in your house, since you just got back? Lots of ways I can imagine those people spreading the disease in the time between sample taking and them actually getting the positive result...<br />
<br />
Today's numbers in Ontario are already
a bit scary, that's for sure. It's also true though that there is
a considerable lag between when measures are put in place and when
you can expect to see the difference in the test results: because
of the lag in the testing itself, but also because of course
people don't even know to get tested until they have symptoms.
Realistically that total lag is 5+ days. So today's numbers are
infections that actually happened at least 5 days ago, and we can
expect to see numbers continue to rise for AT LEAST a few more
days, since Ontario didn't lock down effectively until Tuesday (3
days ago) or so...<br />
<br />
We HAVE acted quickly, but my
impression so far is that we're not acting strongly, i.e. the
state of our "lockdown" isn't very severe compared to what's
possible. According to the model I've been using
(<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="http://gabgoh.github.io/COVID/index.html">http://gabgoh.github.io/COVID/index.html</a>) we need to get under 40% of the previous infection rate, and ideally less than 25% or so, in order to keep this epidemic well under control (feel free to play with the sliders yourself[1]). Do you think existing measures will result in less than 25% of the previous infection rate? It does seem plausible, but I just don't understand infection dynamics enough to be actually confident.<br />
<br />
Anyway, what does it all add up to? Here's my best guess of a 'realistic' scenario for Ontario. We've already gone through week one, so here's the scenario from here:<br />
<br />
1) Week Two: we keep moving forward on stricter social distancing and hygiene measures, getting our "lockdown" better - better measures at supermarkets, more people taking it seriously, better compliance of non-essential businesses, etc. Our testing rate hopefully scales a bit, and the return of travelers from abroad slows down (most everyone is back), so our testing lag will hopefully only grow for the next day or two, and then start reducing again. The number of new cases rises for the first few days, and then plateaus, between 100 to 150 (Ontario).<br />
<br />
2) Week Three: we reach April 5th, and number of new cases/day starts slowly falling, but we're still recording many new cases, way too many to contemplate reducing our control measures. So, the government announces the extension the social distancing period for 3 more weeks, to April 26th (plus or minus a week). Sadly, people are going somewhat crazy from being cooped up so long, and so our previously tightening measures are loosening a bit, but we probably still have levels similar in effectiveness to the week one average. The economic effects of this are crushing for many families, but government money is flowing, so hopefully we can avoid wide-spread despair or poverty. Hospitals have a lot of patients, but we ARE under their total capacity, and this week sees the hospitalized patient population hitting the top of it's curve. Several treatments (like the hydroxychloroquine) potentially prevent at least some of the deaths from occurring.<br />
<br />
3) Weeks Four & Five: number of new cases is still falling, though not as fast as everyone is hoping, we reach ~10 by the end of week five. There may be announcement of further, harsher measures, for instance, the closure of parks and public transit, though this obviously results in it's own whole world of compensatory behaviors which increase spreading almost as much as the cancellation reduces spreading. We're all more than a little tired of being co-oped up, especially parents of small children, but it IS widely understood how important obeying these measures is, so we're just "suffering in place". Testing has ramped and we're on top of new cases, etc, the disease itself is increasing under very good control.<br />
<br />
4) Week Six: we record several days of only low single-digit new infections.The government lays out a plan for us emerging from our lockdown that consists of everyone being hyper vigilant about symptoms and self-isolation if they are sick, some continuing social distancing, being prepared for more regional lockdowns, and crazy levels of testing. Many people (e.g. TTC drivers, grocery store clerks, etc) will have to wear significant personal protective equipment for the forseeable future. But we DO go ahead with opening back up at the end of week six. There are several treatments now actually available as well which also encourages us to take this risk - the chance that people will die if they get sick is considerably smaller than before.<br />
<br />
5) Weeks Seven-??: measures work in most places, though a couple of cities DO end up have to restart more extreme measures when they have a "super spreader" situation happen. Flights to some countries which also have the disease well under control start to be more popular again. The economy starts to recover. Things like restaurants are slow to get back to their former levels of business, but it does happen as people's fear recedes.<br />
<br />
6) Eventually (at least 4 months from now): Canada is able to reopen it's borders. The economy is back to being mostly regular. Treatments are great and widely available - perhaps even enough for "everyone" to get treated. We can let the virus actually infect the entire population, and we basically do, though perhaps it's staged and controlled somehow. The virus and disease become endemic, and various mutations of it are a seasonal disease that people can get, just like the flu, and probably roughly as dangerous (which is to say: still quite horrible really).<br />
<br />
Obviously it can easily go worse or better than that, but I feel like this is a sort of middle-of-the-road scenario that is fairly plausible.<br />
<br />
Eric<br />
<br />
<br />
[1] Note that the model shows
"populations" of people in each group, NOT daily or cumulative
totals. So it's a bit hard to compare directly to the numbers in
the spreadsheet, you sort of need to compare one days numbers to
the next in the model, in order to get a feel for the rates. If
someone is a super awesome hacker, I'd love to see a fork where
there are three charts: the existing population one; a daily
change chart, and a cumulative total chart. The second two charts
would be fixed outputs (i.e. no sliders etc on them). There could
also be a table version of any of those, that might be handy. Eric Boydhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16717392630309707057noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8321448421187115364.post-59504107262701625062020-03-20T07:49:00.000-07:002020-03-20T08:55:18.198-07:00Coronavirus Ontario/Toronto Update<a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-bW8aDiBWoHs/XnTVvKek0oI/AAAAAAAABPY/nYtmY7oPSAoKj8-wfOAm6qybDZQMknUBQCNcBGAsYHQ/s1600/Hydroxychloroquine.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="452" data-original-width="362" height="320" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-bW8aDiBWoHs/XnTVvKek0oI/AAAAAAAABPY/nYtmY7oPSAoKj8-wfOAm6qybDZQMknUBQCNcBGAsYHQ/s320/Hydroxychloroquine.png" width="256" /></a>I found the <a href="https://www.mediterranee-infection.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/Hydroxychloroquine_final_DOI_IJAA.pdf">(draft) scientific paper</a> for the french Hydroxychloroquine and azithromycin treatment, and it's amazing! Results are even better than the previous announced "75% tested negative after 6 days" result. There was a 6-patient subgroup which also received the antibiotic azithromycin, and they had a 100% negative test result. Obviously that's a tiny sample, but it's super promissing. The <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/lisettevoytko/2020/03/19/trump-says-fda-approved-anti-malaria-drug-chloroquine-to-test-as-coronavirus-treatment/#3b952be0303d">FDA already approved it</a> and several groups are doing larger studies, so it's conceivable that in just a few more days we could start to widely use this drug combo on the most ill & most elderly patients, and save thousands of lives. We don't deserve this miracle (what are the odds that an existing widely used drug would just happen to be so effective against a new disease?!?), but we might get it anyway, and that's just amazing. Thanks science, and thanks to the people in China who identified this drugs action in-vitro, and the team in France who did this study. You're all heroes if this pans out. Note that what I write about deaths below still assumes this kind of miracle doesn't happen. We might be able to save most of them yet, and obviously an effective treatment means it's less scary to let the disease propagate a little bit (but we can't let it go wild since we certainly don't have enough drug to treat EVERYONE).<br />
<br />
In local news, Ontario and Toronto are progressing along the epidemic at about the rate that seemed likely to me when I wrote <a href="http://www.digitalcrusader.ca/2020/03/coronavirus-futures-toronto-ontario.html">first email</a>. Ontario is still on track for low-thousands of cases with a dozen or two death total. In the last three days (March 17, 18, 19), the <a href="https://www.ontario.ca/page/2019-novel-coronavirus">province reported</a> 22, 44 and 36 new cases, total now 251 with 2 deaths. <a href="https://www.toronto.ca/home/covid-19/">Toronto</a>: 20, 7, and 18, total now 128 and zero deaths, 11 people hospitalized, 4 in intensive care. So MUCH depends on the testing coverage, i.e. are we actually catching/testing most (>50%?) of the actual cases, or is there widespread untested infection? If you assume that our testing IS good (it's been pretty good to date, as proven by the fact that our epidemic is later than most places and surprisingly late for how well connected internationally Toronto is, and by the fact that deaths are in-line with 1% of infections), then these only slowly rising numbers are very positive sign that we'll get away in the end with low-thousands of total cases. To actually get there though, we NEED TO STAY in lockdown at least as strong as we are now ("extreme social distancing" and widespread business closures/limitations), and our public health teams need to continue to find and isolate infected people at high efficiency.<br />
<br />
The city of Toronto is actually doing <a href="https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLp11YxteHNp2ta73sC3tKuFZXV9JW0Kpv">daily media briefings</a>, and they are *incredible*. I am so impressed with Dr. Eileen de Villa, she is calm, well rested, super clear in her communications, and she gives full, accurate, and true answers to every question. She doesn't hide her ignorance when doesn't know, and she explains why we do things even in our state of uncertainty about how the virus works. She mixes in both carrots and sticks to encourage people to behave responsibly. It's worth going back and watching some from the previous days if you have questions or curiosity about public health and how and why things are done. If, when this is all over and Toronto has escaped any serious death toll, it will be her and her team at the city that we owe thanks to. I'm already grateful: thank you Dr. Eileen de Villa. Plus, she breaks me up and makes me cry with her statements about how we all love this city, you can feel the love.<br />
<br />
In my optimistic vision of how this is going to go for Toronto/Ontario now, we basically stay where we are now in term of lockdown till April 5th (as opposed to being forced to implement stronger measures due to ever higher numbers of infections). Total cases could be something like 1000-2000, with perhaps a dozen or two deaths (though half of those deaths probably haven't happened by April 5th). At that time, if there haven't been any new community cases in a few days (ideally at least a week!), we could potentially allow things to go back to more normal business-as-usual, opening school and business, etc. The MOST IMPORTANT part of a program to allow opening up would be for all citizens to be hyper vigilant about symptoms, confining themselves immediately if they feel even the tiniest bit sick, and also informing anyone else around themselves who were close enough to catch it to do the same. Because obviously if that doesn't happen, we get back to needing city or province wide social distancing again in less than two weeks; this whole cycle would have to repeat. I guess we might be able to do such lockdowns more regionally, if we were certain of the patient zero and their travels in each area, but man it seems hard to be certain like that... perhaps one part of opening up might be some regional travel restrictions, basically, telling people to limit travel outside of their own region? That doesn't seem super practical, but I guess it's more practical than what we're doing NOW, so there's that... The possible drug treatment above also helps us to be ok staying more open, since we can tolerate a few more cases because the risk is lower - though as I said above, we still can't let the virus run rampant, so if cases rose too much (>5/day?), especially if they were public transmission cases (i.e. not linked to an existing known positive case), we'd still have to lock down again.<br />
<br />
In conclusion, stay home, distance yourself greater than two meters from others on required trips out, and stay healthy. We're going to get through this together.Eric Boydhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16717392630309707057noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8321448421187115364.post-31267559941158555812020-03-18T11:13:00.001-07:002020-03-18T11:13:53.996-07:00Coronavirus Futures: USA and GlobalMy previous post <a href="http://www.digitalcrusader.ca/2020/03/coronavirus-futures-toronto-ontario.html">Coronavirus Futures: Toronto & Ontario</a> covered only the local situation. Here's a more global look.<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-bZVbckPplMU/XnJhrmKg3qI/AAAAAAAABO8/XFTQAT0cVZQQ6Sk_Y20-TJ8Hy1PBBuTiQCNcBGAsYHQ/s1600/CoronavirusApp_world.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="849" data-original-width="1257" height="216" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-bZVbckPplMU/XnJhrmKg3qI/AAAAAAAABO8/XFTQAT0cVZQQ6Sk_Y20-TJ8Hy1PBBuTiQCNcBGAsYHQ/s320/CoronavirusApp_world.png" width="320" /></a></div>
First, some resources:<br />Nice tracking for Canada (with charts and data downloads): <a href="https://art-bd.shinyapps.io/covid19canada/">Covid19Canada</a> (by some UoT people)<br />
Global Tracking: <a href="https://coronavirus.app/">Coronavirus.app</a><br />
Handy Tool for projecting the future: <a href="http://gabgoh.github.io/COVID/index.html">Epidemic Model</a><br />
USA: <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/testing-in-us.html?CDC_AA_refVal=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.cdc.gov%2Fcoronavirus%2F2019-ncov%2Ftesting-in-us.html">CDC test tracking</a> (I don't know WHY that page is missing so much data even though they keep updating it, but it's the best info I've been able to find).<br />
<br />
Second, some local updates: As expected, the Canada-USA border has been tightened again, by mutual consent, it's closed to American's now, which is great. I kinda figured the delay was political (the USA wouldn't agree to not letting American's cross), so it's great to have them aboard for this, and within two days of the original announcement. Toronto numbers on Monday were scary, with 20 new cases in Toronto, some of them community spread cases, but numbers yesterday were *amazingly low* at 8 (I would have bet money on 40+), so that's great. We're basically tracking with my previous hopes for where we'd be at locally, I still think it's possible for Ontario to keep it to low thousands of cases. Try plugging some values into that model I linked above, it's very informative. A sort of "middle of the road" scenario where you assume that Ontario had 200 community cases before we locked down shows that we end with only 62 fatalities, and need only 240 hospital beds, which is obviously bad, but it sounds manageable to me.<br />
<br />
Now on with the main event.<br />
<br />
Near-term US Futures (next 2 weeks): Many US states will become like France, Italy and Germany: overwhelmed health care systems and thousands or tens of thousands of patients. This is already inevitable based even on the confirmed cases. Given that the testing in the USA has been embarrassingly bad, their true cases are *much* higher than reported. Honestly my "best case" scenario for the USA at this point is 1M cases, and 50k deaths; that's going to start in the next few weeks in places like NYC & Seattle. New York, with thousands of confirmed cases, still is not properly locked down even today; they will soon have hundreds of deaths every day. The miracle they need: everyone in the county to go into immediate, total lockdown. Nobody even leaves the house for a week, and they try to avoid infecting each other in the household as well. Since that's obviously not going to happen, they face a much longer isolation period than e.g. <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Hubei_lockdowns">China has faced</a> - and to be clear, they locked down Jan 23/24 and most cities are STILL in lockdown now, almost 8 weeks later. Trump keeps talking about <a href="https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1239646763222474754">15 days to slow the spread</a>, but that's an atrocious, misleading, horrible lie about the true reality of this situation. The American political response at all levels has been abysmal, and is likely to continue to be so (let's not even talk about the mayor of NYC and his actions...). Americans: please please please lock yourselves down if you live in the USA.<br />
<br />
Near Term Globally, obviously it's as bad in Europe, they are perhaps 3-5 days ahead of America in general, but facing a very similar scenarios. Their political responses have also not been very good; with some such as the UK and the Netherlands actually announcing plans which essentially call for the deaths of 1-5% of their own citizens. Craziness!!! Now the UK has actually retreated from that plan, but the bonkersness of it really blew my mind.<br />
<br />
The rest of the world appears to be several weeks behind in terms of infection counts, but it's so hard to know if the numbers of confirmed cases is telling a true story. To be sure, you need to know about the state of testing in each country, and I haven't had time to do much digging for anywhere but Canada and the USA. So I won't comment more broadly here, other than to say: if you are detected ANY community cases (meaning: you can't trace a confirmed case back to travel or a close connection) then the time to lockdown was YESTERDAY. Every delay of 1 day causes 40% more cases, and potentially more than that in deaths if you go far enough to overload your medical system.<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://france3-regions.francetvinfo.fr/provence-alpes-cote-d-azur/sites/regions_france3/files/styles/top_big/public/assets/images/2020/03/18/coronavirus_essais_cliniques_de_chloroquine_prometteurs_a_marseille_le_gouvernement_annonce_des_essais_plus_vastes-4703060.jpg?itok=KPTInfYC" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="449" data-original-width="800" height="179" src="https://france3-regions.francetvinfo.fr/provence-alpes-cote-d-azur/sites/regions_france3/files/styles/top_big/public/assets/images/2020/03/18/coronavirus_essais_cliniques_de_chloroquine_prometteurs_a_marseille_le_gouvernement_annonce_des_essais_plus_vastes-4703060.jpg?itok=KPTInfYC" width="320" /></a></div>
Medium Term (months) Futures: well, we have EXCELLENT NEWS from France today: <a href="https://www.aa.com.tr/en/europe/france-sanofi-offers-potential-drug-to-beat-covid-19/1770571">Sanofi offers potential drug to beat COVID-19</a>. They say "In a recent clinical trial, the Plaquenil drug was tested on 24 patients, and after six days, the virus had disappeared in three quarters of them". Now that isn't actually very encouraging by itself, since actually most people recover from the disease pretty quickly anyway. But there is additional info in a (french) video: <a href="https://france3-regions.francetvinfo.fr/provence-alpes-cote-d-azur/bouches-du-rhone/marseille/coronavirus-stade-3-traitement-chloroquine-efficace-professeur-raoult-ihu-marseille-1792037.html">Coronavirus: “promising” chloroquine clinical trials in Marseille, government announces larger trials</a> where they reveal that they had a control group of 24 other people, and after the same 6 days all 24 of them still tested positive. Meaning: the drug helps to rapidly reduce viral drug load in peoples bodies. From what I understand of what causes people to die (an immune system freakout due to super high viral overload), this drug is probably a great treatment, based on these results! And better, <a href="https://www.drugs.com/plaquenil.html">the drug</a> is already used for several different things, so it seems likely that lots of countries have at least some small stockpiles of it. Assuming more can be manufactured quickly, it could radically change the OUTCOMES of the infections we already have underway, and thus save a lot of lives. And medium term, it makes a real difference in how our future looks, if it proves out with e.g. older people, and reduces mortality to e.g. flu levels or below, it's actually BETTER than a vaccine. So that's super hopeful, the first good break we've gotten in awhile on this problem.<br />
<br />
In terms of a plausible medium term future in the USA, I sort of gave it above, but you can imagine that drug helping, and I hope that they get it together nationally and start lockdown properly everywhere. Assuming that happens, they can keep it to 1M infected and 50k dead, less if they have enough of the drug to treat large numbers of people. If they don't get things under lockdown, well, just keep multiplying. Here's your catch phrase: <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/03/america-isnt-failing-its-pandemic-testwashington-is/608026/">a global pandemic is a mandatory exam in national competence</a>, and America has been failing so far.<br />
<br />
Long Term: well, that miracle drug has greatly improved my long-term outlook. Obviously it may not work, but it's increased my confidence that such treatments will be discovered / will work. So a different 3+ year scenario than last time: we rapidly scale up manufacturing of whatever drug works. There is a widespread distribution scheme, where basically every household ends up with enough pills to treat a couple of people for the full length of treatment; these pills come with instructions on when and how to take them, and ideally with a home test for the drug too. Then, life can sort of go back to normal, except that everyone may occasionally have to check themselves (basically when you get a suspicious set of symptoms, cold like: fever, cough, but no sneezing) and enter a brief period of treatment and isolation if they test positive. Retirement homes and similar places will need to be super vigilant. But life in general could be "fairly normal" I think, there is just going to be a wide spread level of paranoia about the common cold that doesn't happen now, and in general there will be a huge increase in public spending on public health resources, pandemic fighting, etc (hopefully that boost actually lasts long enough to be helpful for the next potential pandemic, which is probably 5-20 years away). So that's much more normal than my previous long-term prediction, reflecting the optimism I have gained from that reported successful treatment.<br />
<br />Eric Boydhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16717392630309707057noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8321448421187115364.post-20079611809453154162020-03-18T06:46:00.000-07:002020-03-18T06:46:10.661-07:00New Quarantine Hobby: Painting<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-9EacNQAM_QI/XnIlp0fIZxI/AAAAAAAABOY/SIouK35YTV8VVYzdByQ8xvRJI8-HHXqGACNcBGAsYHQ/s1600/IMG_6704.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="480" data-original-width="640" height="240" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-9EacNQAM_QI/XnIlp0fIZxI/AAAAAAAABOY/SIouK35YTV8VVYzdByQ8xvRJI8-HHXqGACNcBGAsYHQ/s320/IMG_6704.JPG" width="320" /></a></div>
Seeing many weeks of 'shelter at home' coming, I stocked up on entertainment (and food, but I'm not worried about that). Before the libraries closed, I got six of the largest sci-fi books I could find out of the library (three are anthologies of short stories, which I love). And thanks to some inspiration from my housemates, and a previous experience at <a href="https://www.paintlounge.ca/">paint lounge</a> (I painted a happy robot), I decided to take up painting. We bought over $200 worth of acrylic painting supplies at <a href="https://www.currys.com/">currys</a>: paint, canvas, practice paper, and brushes.<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-SBmJpVC66ek/XnIlvBRsIxI/AAAAAAAABOc/BOhrvwK01s0-Og9leyk9QO0yUvLovoECQCNcBGAsYHQ/s1600/IMG_6708.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="640" data-original-width="480" height="320" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-SBmJpVC66ek/XnIlvBRsIxI/AAAAAAAABOc/BOhrvwK01s0-Og9leyk9QO0yUvLovoECQCNcBGAsYHQ/s320/IMG_6708.JPG" width="240" /></a></div>
And now I present to you: COVID-1, my first masterpiece. Way I figure it I have 17 more practice paintings of COVID before I have to make the final piece in the set :-). I learned a lot on this one, mostly importantly:<br />
<ol>
<li>I need to set the paper higher on the easel, bending over for an hour+ makes my back hurt! Ideally it's only a bit short of eye-level, I think. Also we need proper tarps and I need some paint clothing or coveralls (though I did miraculously not get any on me this time, I doubt my luck can hold).</li>
<li>We need smaller brushes; the smallest brush we have still makes lines which are ~4mm wide, so detail is just impossible. Fortunately I know that I have a huge collection of brushes in the garage *somewhere* from my former "Machina Lisa" <a href="https://watercolorbot.com/">watercolorbot</a> phase (I made the robot paint the Mona Lisa, very badly, over and over again with parameter variations, it was entertaining), and many of them are tiny, so I just need to spend 2+ hours turning the garage upside down... probably a good project for this quarantine time anyway!</li>
<li>It's important to think very carefully about what's to be painted first. There were some objects which should be partially behind other objects, and that means you have to paint them first, because you can't add them later and actually have it look correct, especially not with these battleship brushes which can't do detail! Also in sequencing, it's very important in some cases to let the previous layer DRY before starting on the thing above or beside it. Sometimes it's ok to get some mixing due to things not being dry, but other times it's super bad!</li>
<li>It's great to follow a picture of what you want to paint; and I was correct that choosing something high contrast makes for at least a potentially good painting, even if my amateur mistakes clearly left it sad if you look too closely. Overall I'm super happy with how this second painting turned out. Great start :-)</li>
</ol>
Anyway, my idea basically is to make a new painting every day of this extended lockdown phase, and hopefully by the end I'll actually be decent at this. Some ideas for future paintings:<br />
<ul>
<li>more coronavirus's, obviously. There are a lot of awesome looking images out there, and many of those images are stunning & high contrast</li>
<li>more happy robots!</li>
<li>spaceships and planets! Maybe a Falcon Heavy?!?</li>
<li>perhaps a streetscape (from my balcony) or skyline of the city, though I feel like that might require a lot more skill than I have or am likely to develop</li>
<li>Absolutely no 'landscape pastorals' or self-portraits! Well, maybe one, just to be ironic about it :-)</li>
<li>Other crazy ideas as suggested by my family and friends</li>
</ul>
Eric Boydhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16717392630309707057noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8321448421187115364.post-29754057008974137862020-03-18T05:09:00.000-07:002020-03-18T05:09:07.255-07:00Coronavirus Futures: Toronto & OntarioHere's the emails that I sent out at noon on March 16th (Monday):<br />
<blockquote>
I agree we should cancel open house, sad as that is. I will not be there to make the dinner tomorrow. <br /> <br />
<div class="moz-cite-prefix">
The pandemic has been all but confirmed
here too now, unsurprisingly:
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/health/coronavirus-community-transmission-canada-1.5498804">https://www.cbc.ca/news/health/coronavirus-community-transmission-canada-1.5498804</a></div>
<div class="moz-cite-prefix">
<br />
</div>
<div class="moz-cite-prefix">
<div class="moz-cite-prefix">
I've been doing a lot of research
since I have a lot of time and some science background. Here's
a sort of outline of our future:<br />
</div>
<div class="moz-cite-prefix">
<br />
</div>
[TL;DR: short term we all need to isolate and lockdown. Medium and
longer term are uncertain but mostly depressing and tragic]<br />
</div>
<div class="moz-cite-prefix">
<br />
</div>
<div class="moz-cite-prefix">
Short term: if we maintain a reasonably
strict lockdown for a few weeks (3-9), we can hope to keep the
number of Ontario cases in the low-thousands. Because we've acted
quickly compared to our confirmed cases, and our testing has been
decent. That count is low enough to not overwhelm our healthcare
system, hopefully. I AM a bit terrified about all of the
Canadians returning from abroad; hopefully the vast majority of
them manage to self-isolate effectively, otherwise that alone is
likely to doom us to pandemic. The critical numbers to watch will
be cases over the next week or so. You can watch those here:</div>
<div class="moz-cite-prefix">
<br />
</div>
<div class="moz-cite-prefix">
Toronto:
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.toronto.ca/home/covid-19/">https://www.toronto.ca/home/covid-19/</a></div>
<div class="moz-cite-prefix">
Ontario:
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.ontario.ca/page/2019-novel-coronavirus">https://www.ontario.ca/page/2019-novel-coronavirus</a><br />
</div>
<div class="moz-cite-prefix">
Canada:
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.canada.ca/en/public-health/services/diseases/2019-novel-coronavirus-infection.html">https://www.canada.ca/en/public-health/services/diseases/2019-novel-coronavirus-infection.html</a></div>
<div class="moz-cite-prefix">
<br />
</div>
<div class="moz-cite-prefix">
Lockdown info: The most important thing
you can do personally is to maintain isolation and high hygiene.
Do not go anywhere unless it's required; remain at least 6 feet
from people at all times. Wash hands after touching any public
surface, i.e. always immediately when returning home, and as many
other times as you can practically manage. Do not touch your face
or rub your eyes if your hands are not clean; wash hands before
eating. If you have COVID-19 symptoms (most obviously fever or a
dry, continuous cough), CALL your healthcare provider first (do
not visit them or the hospital unless so instructed!). Super huge
amounts of info here:
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://arstechnica.com/science/2020/03/dont-panic-the-comprehensive-ars-technica-guide-to-the-coronavirus">https://arstechnica.com/science/2020/03/dont-panic-the-comprehensive-ars-technica-guide-to-the-coronavirus</a></div>
<div class="moz-cite-prefix">
<br />
</div>
<div class="moz-cite-prefix">
If you are young and do not have any
elder care responsibilities, also consider volunteering to help
out - you personally are at low risk, and could help out others.
Canada will get through this by working together.
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.theglobeandmail.com/canada/article-canada-heres-how-we-are-going-to-survive-this-pandemic-together/">https://www.theglobeandmail.com/canada/article-canada-heres-how-we-are-going-to-survive-this-pandemic-together/</a>
Volunteer for UHN near the bottom of this page:
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="http://uhnopenlab.ca/project/hotline/">http://uhnopenlab.ca/project/hotline/</a><br />
</div>
<div class="moz-cite-prefix">
<br />
</div>
<div class="moz-cite-prefix">
Medium term: things are looking a lot
more dicey. I'm hoping that Ontario can remain one of the "green
zones" (where the virus/disease is under control in general, vs
"red zones" where it is not), but given our proximity to the USA
(e.g. New York State, one of the worst places right now in terms
of infection count and pathetic political response), maintaining
that status is going to depend on some very tight borders and
massive testing/self-isolation systems (read up on what Korea has
been doing). Realistically we face years of these kinds of
controls, as epidemics spring up and die down all over the world.
Ontario itself will probably go through several lockdown periods,
each caused by a failure to catch a case, which then spreads until
another lockdown is required. There is some hope for effective
treatments and a vaccine which might help reduce the problem 6-18
months from now, but these are by no means certain. Canada has
been acting quickly on that kind of research, which is very
encouraging (<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://cihr-irsc.gc.ca/e/51868.html">https://cihr-irsc.gc.ca/e/51868.html</a>), though the
total amount of money remains too small IMO.<br />
</div>
<div class="moz-cite-prefix">
<br />
</div>
<div class="moz-cite-prefix">
Long term: A depressing but
somewhat-plausible 3+ years-from-now future is that the disease
has become endemic, like the flu, with dozens of mutating strains,
and eventually everyone gets it, not just once but on a regular
basis; with all that entails for ICU usage and deaths. Your yearly
Coronavirus vaccine shot will be more important than your yearly
flu vaccine shot; good treatments are available so it's probably
not more than 5x worse than the flu (currently it's between
10-500x). It's harder to be an old person, since they are
disproportionately at risk (as if it wasn't already hard enough
being old). The more friendly long-term futures, where this
disease is contained or even eradicated worldwide just seem like
super remote pipe-dreams at this point - how could we possibly get
there from here?<br />
</div>
<div class="moz-cite-prefix">
<br />
</div>
<div class="moz-cite-prefix">
Eric</div>
</blockquote>
Followed by an update that evening:<br />
<blockquote>
<div class="moz-cite-prefix">
Sorry I missed the call.</div>
<div class="moz-cite-prefix">
<br />
</div>
<div class="moz-cite-prefix">
Update from the city today:
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.toronto.ca/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/95bc-MOH-Statement_16March2020.pdf">https://www.toronto.ca/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/95bc-MOH-Statement_16March2020.pdf</a></div>
<div class="moz-cite-prefix">
<br />
</div>
<div class="moz-cite-prefix">
Of particular relevance to our open
house, starting at midnight, restaurants are no longer allowed to
serve food on premise, only for take-out and delivery. All people
are supposed to stay home as much as possible.</div>
<div class="moz-cite-prefix">
<br />
</div>
<div class="moz-cite-prefix">
Canada itself also announced sweeping
new travel restrictions today, which begin on Wednesday. Only
Americans and Canadians will be let in. Nobody with symptoms will
be allowed on flights. All people entering will be forced to
acknowledge that they are being requested to self-quarantine for
14 days. IMO these measures are likely to get considerably
stronger in the next few days. The amount of push back they got
during the Q&A on that "Americans" bit was intense.<br />
</div>
<div class="moz-cite-prefix">
<br />
</div>
<div class="moz-cite-prefix">
Toronto recorded over 20 new cases
today, many of which are community transmission cases. The
epidemic is well underway here now - if we CAUGHT 20 cases, that
means there are likely 10x as many out there uncaught. I cannot
emphasize that previous statement enough, please read it again. As
with all epidemics, the sooner we start serious public health
measures to control transmission, the smaller the epidemic will
be, and also, the shorter the lockdown period will have to be. We
HAVE started measures earlier than almost any other place in North
America. It's still possible for us to keep it to low-thousands of
total cases in Ontario if we complete our lockdown quickly.<br />
</div>
<div class="moz-cite-prefix">
<br />
</div>
<div class="moz-cite-prefix">
San Francisco / the SF Bay Area (where
I used to live, and still have many friends) just put in place
something they call "shelter in place": it's a misdemeanor offense
to be outside in public unless you are going for groceries or
medicines. IMO Toronto will likely get there officially in 2-5
days.
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.sfchronicle.com/local-politics/article/Bay-Area-must-shelter-in-place-Only-15135014.php">https://www.sfchronicle.com/local-politics/article/Bay-Area-must-shelter-in-place-Only-15135014.php</a>
<br />
</div>
<div class="moz-cite-prefix">
<br />
</div>
<div class="moz-cite-prefix">
Obviously you should get yourself
unofficially to full lock down ASAP; there is no point waiting for
the government to force you do it. We're all in this together.<br />
</div>
<div class="moz-cite-prefix">
<br />
</div>
<div class="moz-cite-prefix">
Eric</div>
</blockquote>
Eric Boydhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16717392630309707057noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8321448421187115364.post-21215106594203437272020-03-18T04:52:00.003-07:002020-03-18T04:52:41.102-07:00Coronavirus Quarantine Blog<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-CKZIdXFfYkQ/XnILb3j6h_I/AAAAAAAABNw/LpV5lYPTjygBqS8fvaIRLPTC0IZ22RLqwCNcBGAsYHQ/s1600/quarantineAhead.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="609" data-original-width="996" height="195" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-CKZIdXFfYkQ/XnILb3j6h_I/AAAAAAAABNw/LpV5lYPTjygBqS8fvaIRLPTC0IZ22RLqwCNcBGAsYHQ/s320/quarantineAhead.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>
Like everyone else, my life has been cancelled and I'm 'sheltering at home'. As anticipated this is going to be a frustrating period with two main emotional themes - existential horror, and boredom. It's a weird mix. Super bad things are happening in the world, but other than trying to keep my own city (& household, family, friends, etc) safe, and maybe doing a bit of organizing to spread good ideas around, there isn't much to do other than entertain myself at home.<br />
<br />
In the spirit of those first two items, I've been writing emails to groups and people I am involved with, trying to convey the shape of the likely future. TL;DR is obviously "this is the worst and largest crisis of our lifetime", it makes things like the great recession and 9/11 look like tempests in a teapot. It didn't have to be this way (this was an avoidable/preventable crisis), but you could have said that about both of those other two events as well, and been roughly as correct.<br />
<br />
My plan for this revived blog: post those updates and models and info that I have been sending out to people anyway. Also share the human side of quarantine, though as always I am very careful of the privacy of the others, so it's likely to be a bit one-sided, or gappy or whatever. <br />
<br />
Stay safe, stay healthy.Eric Boydhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16717392630309707057noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8321448421187115364.post-41547613091502248212017-02-01T14:10:00.003-08:002017-02-01T14:10:49.775-08:00Creative Career Design<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-rT5SmDXEdcQ/WJJbOOw1fAI/AAAAAAAAA7c/fsh-4lYKOUI9j6CONuQk-2-B3-xpRC1EQCLcB/s1600/notGivingAFuck.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" height="320" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-rT5SmDXEdcQ/WJJbOOw1fAI/AAAAAAAAA7c/fsh-4lYKOUI9j6CONuQk-2-B3-xpRC1EQCLcB/s320/notGivingAFuck.jpg" width="213" /></a></div>
After three shake-me-up events in the middle of last year (2016 was hard for everyone), I've been on a major new life track, trying to figure out a new pathway for myself. What do I want to accomplish with my life? What's a good career for me? I've been reading a lot of books, writing a lot in my journal, and generally talking to everyone about everything. Here's some notes that I have been sending to people when they ask me about "my process", which has been many months long already.<br />
<br />
Books: So many, but here are two excellent ones: <a href="https://www.amazon.com/dp/B009YM5NGG/">Creating A Life Worth Living</a> and <a href="https://www.amazon.com/Subtle-Art-Not-Giving-Counterintuitive/dp/0062457713/">The Subtle Art of Not Giving a Fuck</a>: a counter-intuitive approach to living a good life. The latter book is pictured, it's one of the best books I've read in my entire life; highly recommended. Unlike a lot of self-help books, it's not filled with feel-good bullshit, or spurious details of the authors life. There are no wasted words, or wasted chapters - the book needs to be the 224 pages that it is. <br />
<br />
In non-book stuff, here are some exercises that I've done, that I've found super helpful so far:
<br />
<br />
Ask yourself "What will have the most impact on the future of
humanity?", and then drill down into those answers to see what you're
interested in doing. This is a question from Elon Musk.
<br />
<br />
Write down all of your goals (20-30). Choose five that are most
important to you. Stare long and hard at the other 25 and promise
yourself you will never do them, because those the things that will
distract you and ruin your life. This is an exercise from Warren
Buffet, via Carol Lloyd (author of one of the books above), who instead says: organize the goals in a hierarchy, see if everything you are doing is
actually in service of just one goal.
<br />
<br />
Create a list of every job (or job-like thing) you've ever done, and
list all of the things that you hated about each. Then list all of the
things that you loved about each. Are there any similarities across
different jobs in each group? Hopefully this gives you a bit of picture
about the kind of career that you would enjoy - not just what you would
be doing, but all the other things that matter (esp. people/relationships, but also: environment, culture, how you are managed, work/life balance, etc.etc).
This one came from my life coach.
<br />
<br />
Future Fulfilled. If you've got an idea for a big
project/accomplishment, "begin with the end in mind" and write down what your life / the world looks like in X years, if things are wildly
successful (X = whatever span is appropriate - some things obviously
require a lot longer than others). Then, project back in stages, with
"milestones" at intervals before that period. Each milestone should be
far enough backwards from the last that the situation is pretty
different, but close enough that there are just things that have to be
true if the next milestone is going to be accomplished. Work your way
back all the way to now. It's amazing how quickly things can get really
detailed as you get close to now. I got this idea from my friend Paul,
who got it from Landmark Forum.<br />
<br />
Experimental Mindset - from the above four things, you should be able to
construct a list of possible careers for yourself, and a variety of ways
in which you might evaluate the success of those options. Now, devise
ways to run "experiments" for each of them, in order to gather data and
see if each option might possibly look like you want your life to look
like. Run the experiments, and evaluate. This of course starts to make
things really real. This one is my idea, but really, there are no
alternatives to an experimental mindset - if you are going to do
anything, you are essentially doing this, so you might as well be doing
it consciously.
<br />
<br />
Pathway. I got this one from Tim Ferris, his question: "How can you make it so that even if you fail or quit, you still win?" While you are doing the experiments, or leading your life, pay attention to all the side effects. When you are working towards a goal, often you end up doing a lot of other things, gaining a lot of skills, meeting a lot of people, etc. Often times, you ultimately end up failing at your goal. But, all of these side effects usually end up being super important in your life - that person you met becomes the person you start the next company with, or that skill you built ends up becoming your next career, or whatever. So, when you are thinking about your potential experiments, consider carefully how you can still win (walk away with some great side-effects) even if you ultimately do not choose that path, or that experiment fails. Does the pathway you're on lead to lots of great side-effects, or it is relatively barren? How can you get more and better side-effects in everything that you do?Eric Boydhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16717392630309707057noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8321448421187115364.post-85660827762117048342014-05-11T17:56:00.000-07:002014-05-11T17:56:21.738-07:00Luma Droid<img align="right" hspace="5" src="https://farm8.staticflickr.com/7312/14161306321_6237bb642d.jpg" vspace="5" />Several months ago, my friends and I built a bar-bot, a machine for serving alcoholic drinks. The original motivation was a Robot Birthday party at my house; traditionally we have a theme drink for each party, but it turns out there really are not any "robot drinks" (bender not withstanding). So the obvious step was a make a robot make the drinks :-). I've wanted to make such a machine anyway since attending a <a href="http://www.barbot.us/">barbot party</a> in San Francisco about 5 years ago, at which about a dozen such machines were exhibited. After looking into how expensive various components would be, I settled on using <a href="http://www.ebay.com/itm/12V-DC-DIY-Dosing-Pump-Peristaltic-dosing-Head-For-Aquarium-Lab-Analytical-water-/161115436042?pt=LH_DefaultDomain_0&hash=item25833a740a">12V peristaltic pumps used for aquarium dosing</a>, because they are both cheap and food safe. The biggest downside was slow - they pump about 80ml/min (don't believe 100ml/min claim), so realistically it's about 25 seconds/ounce. That suffices for the booze, but for mixers I needed a higher flow rate, so I found a cheap way to make a valve (basically just using a servo motor to crimp close some tubing), and just gravity to drive the flow. A friend of mine did all the design for the laser cut boxes, another did the coding, and a third helped me with assembly. I did all the electronics design and the project management, plus all the actual buying of things (we love you <a href="http://plasticworld.ca/">plastic world</a> and <a href="http://creatroninc.com/">creatron</a>). It was super huge amounts of fun, and I've used it at three parties now, each time it was a smash hit. The lighting (we used <a href="http://www.adafruit.com/products/306">fully controllable RGB LED strip</a> - the expensive stuff) is spectacular, that's why we called it the Luma Droid! All told, the machine cost $470 in parts, took 71 hours of my time, and about 60 hours of my friends time. So I estimate time payback (assuming 30 seconds of saved time per drink made) in about a millennium :-). Financial payback, however, may take slightly less long - I've just been offered quite a bit of money to improve the machine (in whatever ways I want) and bring it to a very swanky party for a top-tier alcohol brand. So that's exciting! Check out the <a href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/mrericboyd/sets/72157644617330961/">Luma Droid photo gallery</a>. Here's a video of Luma Droid in operation at the birthday party:<br />
<br />
<iframe allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="360" src="//www.youtube.com/embed/z1QB8Nnjdek" width="640"></iframe>Eric Boydhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16717392630309707057noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8321448421187115364.post-19303978014266655882014-05-03T13:47:00.000-07:002014-05-03T13:47:46.659-07:00Aerovelo Atlas World Record<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
<img align="right" hspace="5" src="https://farm6.staticflickr.com/5485/13912128230_59235f7e49.jpg" vspace="5" />I was super privileged to be allowed to observe the <a href="http://www.aerovelo.com/">aerovelo</a> team as they broke the <a href="http://www.aerovelo.com/2013/10/05/new-helicopter-mens-and-womens-world-records/">world records</a> for human powered helicopter flight (duration this time, they broke height a few months before this). It occurred back in September, just after the Toronto Mini Maker Faire, in an indoor soccer field about a half hour north of downtown Toronto. You can watch spectacular videos on their website of the machine in operation, but it's hard to tell from those videos just how fragile the whole thing is! It weighs considerably less than a human - if memory serves, something like 90lbs. This was vividly brought home once when a rider slipped on the pedal (fortunately before liftoff!), and the entire machine shook - it became very clear that one wrong move by the rider could actually destroy the thing. And what a thing it is - super beautiful! A marvel of engineering and craftsmanship, using space age materials. For these duration flights, their actual limiting factor wasn't how much work it is (though I do believe you have to peddle harder than most people would be capable of), but a technical limitation in the machine: the ropes from the copters to the central bike are unidirectional, i.e. they are of finite length, and you simply pull them from one spool to another. Once the rope length is exhausted, it's done, you can't fly anymore. The main reason they did this is weight savings - the extra rope to double it back, and the hardware necessary to tension it in that case (against the flex of the machine, which is quite large!) vastly outweigh the unidirectional coil. And that machine is all about weight vs lift! Anyway, it was an amazing experience to watch a human fly like that, the machine is actually quite quiet, and very elegant, they are off the ground before you realize what's happening. The level of design engineering they did is also incredible - apparently everything was modeled long before they built it, but even so there was a lot of variables they were swapping around in the actual machine, for instance, the type of rope between the bike and the copters. I heard they actually repeated the flights the next day, using a different, much longer, stretchy rope, hoping to set a much higher record, but apparently that rope was a total bust - they couldn't get off the ground! Another interesting fact is that if the rider stops peddling, the machine immediately falls to the ground - there is zero momentum, because the mass is so low. There was also a lot of fussing about balance - there is no mechanism to control the relative speeds of the four copters, so the only control of movement/drift is by the biker shifting their own weight. And of course the machine is bound by the soccer field, which as you can see from <a href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/mrericboyd/sets/72157644084529268/">my photos</a>, isn't a lot larger than the machine, so drift actually ends a lot of flights. </div>
Eric Boydhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16717392630309707057noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8321448421187115364.post-19747416243382436642014-04-18T12:16:00.000-07:002014-04-18T12:16:16.803-07:00Toronto Mini Maker Faire<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://farm4.staticflickr.com/3671/10003940135_7fc59bcb57.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" height="240" src="https://farm4.staticflickr.com/3671/10003940135_7fc59bcb57.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>
So I've been super AWOL on the blogging, but I've resolved to catch up with one post a week for awhile. I've got about 10 events I want to blog about :-). The first is of course the <a href="http://makerfairetoronto.com/">Toronto Mini Maker Faire 2013</a>, which was a huge success! 4000 people came through over 2 days to see <a href="http://makerfairetoronto.com/makers/">40+ makers</a> exhibiting their work. As co-organizer I was super busy keeping all the logistical details working, and getting interviewed by the <a href="http://makerfairetoronto.com/press/">media</a>. But really I was mostly excited to have so many awesome things to see, as is typical at mini maker faires. My favorite things were the chocolate 3D printer, Natali's glass fish, and the R2D2s, but there were so many great other things, like the illegal aliens (wicked metal sculptures), all the 3D printers, the advanced laser tag (with 3D printed laser guns, and wearable vests with lots of electronics!), the lockpick village, etc. Pictured is the photo shoot at the end of the Robot Cavalcade, where every robot in attendance paraded through the barn, which was super fun. Our learn how to solder workshop was super super popular, we taught 700 people how to solder, and could have done way more, except that we ran out of kits (because I totally underestimated how popular it would be :-().<br />
<br />
For next year, we're already secured the <a href="http://www.torontopubliclibrary.ca/detail.jsp?R=LIB018">Toronto Reference Library</a> at Bloor & Yonge for next years faire - it will be about 3x as big in terms of square footage, which should hopefully allow us similar growth in maker numbers and people in attendance. I'm very excited about it already, but planning is really on just beginning. Mark your calendars for Nov 22 & 23, 2014.Eric Boydhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16717392630309707057noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8321448421187115364.post-20837470649150350032013-09-17T08:52:00.003-07:002013-09-17T08:52:34.554-07:00BevLab<img align="right" hspace="5" src="http://farm4.staticflickr.com/3790/9706314492_2a7ec96cd6.jpg" vspace="5" /><a href="http://bevlab.iandjideations.com/">BevLab</a> was soo much fun! We did at least four different experiments (depending on how you count), including:<br />
- <a href="http://www.thestar.com/life/food_wine/2013/09/04/drinking_a_cloud_part_of_experimenting_with_food.html">drinking a cloud</a>, basically: add some essential oils to water, then use one of those ultrasonic humidifier gadgets to make flavoured "cloud". It's amazing how strong the flavor can be!<br />
- liquid nitrogen cooled salsa and guac. We squeezed syringes of salsa and guac into a pool of liquid nitrogen, freezing drops of it very quickly. Then we eat those frozen drops on scoop chips. Very cold, but fun!<br />
- frozen sphere of fruit juice, we used syringes again to remove the unfrozen fluid in the center, then added our own back, giving a two-flavor mix<br />
- make our own soda. Combine up to 12 different flavors into a 300ml beverage, carbonate it, then pour into soda bottle and cap. I made a blackberry / lemonade / hot pepper soda, it had a real zing :-)<br />
<br />
There was also a super cool demo of a beverage mixing robot which used twitter feeds (e.g. #food) to decide on the ratio of the ingredients. Taste data indeed!<br />
<br />
Check out my <a href="http://www.flickr.com/photos/mrericboyd/sets/72157635445521440/">complete flickr set </a> of photos of the event. I originally got tickets via the <a href="http://www.indiegogo.com/projects/toronto-design-offsite-festival-year-4">design offsite indiegogo</a>. I hope a lot more things like this come to Toronto!Eric Boydhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16717392630309707057noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8321448421187115364.post-16393162108309575122013-08-28T17:37:00.001-07:002013-08-28T17:37:43.055-07:00Toronto Mini Maker Faire 2013<img src="http://makerfairetoronto.files.wordpress.com/2013/06/toronto_mmf_logos_wordpress.png?w=500&h=90" align="right">I'm organizing the <a href="http://makerfairetoronto.com/">Toronto Mini Maker Faire</a> this year! It's a gathering of "makers", people who DIY technology. Traditionally it's all the kinds of things in my world - hackerspaces, electronics, 3D printers, quadcopters, etc. It's been really interesting to be behind the scenes in the planning. I've been basically doing maker coordination - making sure that all the coolest people are coming, coordinating with them about what they need, informing them as our own plans develop, etc. It's also been interesting to watch the marketing - I've never been involved in an event at even close to this size, but we have a team who have done all kinds of events at this scale, and marketing an event like this is a huge task. Speaking of which, I've got my own personal discount code: <A href="http://makerfairetoronto.eventbrite.com/?discount=eric">eric</a>, get 20% off tickets :-). I'm super excited to have the faire happening in Toronto again - it was sad when it didn't happen in 2012. Come see <a href="https://hacklab.to/">hacklab</a> at the faire, Sept 21 & 22, at Wychwood Barns here in Toronto.Eric Boydhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16717392630309707057noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8321448421187115364.post-62830144072444323132013-06-16T09:41:00.000-07:002013-06-16T09:41:24.697-07:00Waterloo Mini Maker Faire<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://farm3.staticflickr.com/2815/9056437239_48ae86fff9.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://farm3.staticflickr.com/2815/9056437239_48ae86fff9.jpg" /></a></div>Yesterday three other members of hacklab and I road tripped to the <a href=http://makerfairewaterloo.com/">Waterloo Mini Maker Faire</a>, a gathering of about 40 makers showing their work to the public. It was free entry, so they didn't charge tickets or even keep track of attendance, but there was a very steady crowd of people at the "Hacklab Propaganda Booth" (I titled it that as a joke, I figured the organizers would edit it, but apparently they liked the joke too!), so I figure several thousand people made their way through the faire. They had a wonderful venue, the big lobby of Kitchener City Hall. They basically filled the downstairs area, and a little of the outdoor area, but there was an entire second level overlooking the downstairs which had lots of space but no exhibits - plenty of room for growth for next time! Hacklab showed off our Ultimaker 3D printer, Fumon's flipdot display playing the game of snake, my electronic jewelry and North Paw compass anklet, a <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mecanum_wheel">mecanum wheel</a> robot (sadly not working), and a really cool <a href="http://www.adafruit.com/products/636">USB microscope</a> which you could use to look at some old UV-PROMs that we had, as well as various coins, skin, hair, etc - microscopes are very cool and playful! Much fun was had by all!
<p>Some of the great things I saw outside of our booth (in order of the <a href="http://www.flickr.com/photos/mrericboyd/sets/72157634153605119/">Waterloo Maker Faire 2013 Flickr Set</a>): awesome wooden mechanical models and contraptions, cairo coat wearables jacket with cool diffusers, cheap LIDAR using home etched circuits, various light sabers, Replicator 2X 3D printer, Mascot Heads by Agnes, <A href="http://www.flickr.com/photos/mrericboyd/9058545764/in/set-72157634153605119">MYO prototypes</a>, miniatures figurines including one I made for free, heart circuit with 4 blinking modes, amazing steampunk / mad science sculptures and machines by Russel Zeid, super cute recombinant bicycle for a 3-year old, cyber-netimals: stuffed toys with circuit and computer stuff attached; sadly no active electronics :-(, the hacklab booth (pictured right), wooden puzzles, some general shots of the space, people learning how to solder.Eric Boydhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16717392630309707057noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8321448421187115364.post-13061173213638321092013-04-30T17:53:00.000-07:002013-04-30T17:53:17.970-07:00Tron Jacket!<img src="http://farm9.staticflickr.com/8122/8696027227_6eff117e16.jpg" align="right" vspace="5" hspace="5">For a recent video-game costume party, I made a Tron Jacket! I've always wanted to make one, and things finally came together for it. I got an awesome (fake) leather jacket at a <a href="http://www.robocopmovie.net/news/565">RoboCop remake props sale</a>, and then this party popped up on my radar, and I knew I had to do it! There are lots of interesting examples of <a href="https://www.google.com/search?site=&tbm=isch&source=hp&biw=1077&bih=706&q=tron+jacket&oq=tron+jacket&gs_l=img.3..0l2j0i5l2j0i24l6.1336.3633.0.4097.11.9.0.0.0.0.713.1426.2j3j1j6-1.7.0...0.0...1ac.1.11.img.N5eBVzukC4k">Tron Jackets on google image search</a>. I tried the reflective tape idea, but I didn't like how it looks close up, and it's also highly dependent on the illumination in the room (works best in black light!). I also played with EL-strip, which is awesome because it's wider than than the EL-wire, but I found that the lamination was so inflexible that actually working with it on clothing was basically impossible. Despite hints <a href="http://www.fashioningtech.com/profiles/blogs/tron-quorra-costume">here</a>, I couldn't figure out how to cut and resolder it (basically the interior is made of paste, so soldering to it directly certainly doesn't work), and it doesn't bend, so I think it's basically only suitable for long linear strips, like on a car or bike or something like that. Anyway, with those two options out of the way, I settled on EL-wire for sure. So I bought 2x 10 foot lengths of <a href="https://www.sparkfun.com/products/11427">white EL wire</a> at <a href="http://creatroninc.com/">Creatron</a>, and associated inverters/battery holders.
<p>At the insistance of a friend, I decided to do it non-destructively, meaning: I can't sew the EL-wire into place using clear thread, which is the best way to hold it in place. I walked in a local sew shop and asked the owner there about how to attach things to leather, and he sold me what he called "leather double sided tape". I tested it on the fake-leather and it does indeed stick things good, but comes off without leaving a mark (or even sticky patch, it kinds of rolls up under heavy friction). Then I traced some patterns on the jacket with reference to some of the images online, and started putting the EL-wire unto the jacket. I put the inverters in the front pockets and had to make six holes in the end: out of battery pocket, then up and around to back of jacket, then into the interior, and back out for the circle on the back, that's half, double it for the other side.
<p>Over-all the effect is great, I got a lot of compliments at the party, in the dark it's super convincing. In better light, you can totally see the glue, and the black tape I used in places to make the circles stand alone (with no connecting light). And the glue proved to be more temporary than would be really desirable - the EL-wire starts to lift off in places after a couple of hours, and by the end of the night it was getting impossible to have it not lifted somewhere. Still, I'm happy to have my jacket mostly non-damaged, so it was the right choice. If I ever get a second leather jacket though I totally want a full-time Tron Jacket!
<p>You can see many shots of the jacket, including in-process shots, at my <a href="http://www.flickr.com/photos/mrericboyd/sets/72157633389751318/">Tron Jacket Flickr Set</a>. Total cost of this project: about $100, and 10 hours of time (of which about half was design/prototyping, once I was going with the double-sided tape & EL-wire, it was pretty quick). Plus jacket, of course :-)Eric Boydhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16717392630309707057noreply@blogger.com0